The announcement of the reduction of Russian forces implies two important questions, a military one and a political one.
Let's start with the results on the ground. Since the beginning of the intervention in September 2015 the outcome of the war has taken a decidedly favorable trend to the government of Damascus. In fact, the positive trend for Assad had already begun in the 2014, when with the entry of the Caliphate forces into Syria, many first-time defectors had returned to government ranks. The militias of Free Syrian Army and of the other opposition groups increasingly "Islamized" by the presence of foreign "volunteers", have lost much of their initial fascination. The idea of a Syria victim of an international conspiracy has gradually replaced the icon of a just and democratic rebellion in the collective imagination. The weakening of the anti-Assad military front was followed by important victories by the Syrian Armed Forces which over time buffered the bleeding of men and territory of the first two years of war.
The military victories of the Islamic State in the Syrian conflict have however led to a heavy retreat of Damascus in many regions, jeopardizing the very estate of the State: the taking of Palmyra in the spring of 2015 went around the world.
It is here that the Russian intervention, oriented on three lines, is inserted: air superiority, supply of materials and equipment, assistance and supervision.
The combination of the three factors made it possible to "clean" the Syrian skies, restore the efficiency standards among the forces of Damascus exhausted by years of war, putting them in a position to overturn the attack-defense relationship. Within a few months the Syrian army and its allies went on the offensive on all fronts, from north to south. The news of the reconquest of the Hayyal highlands to the west of Palmyra is now. The site is a stone's throw from Qatari Royal Villa, the main training ground for ISIS recruits in the west of the country. The archaeological site of Palmyra is only at 1 km ... 
This allows us to make a clarification, confirmed by our experience in Syria. Moscow's support was fundamental from a strategic point of view, but every centimeter of territory regained was the result of the sacrifice on the ground of Syrian soldiers. Of this in Damascus they are very jealous.
It is therefore easier to understand the significance of the withdrawal of the Russian forces, which essentially involves a reduction of the contingent and not its zeroing: the strategic goal of putting the Syrians in a position to win has been reached, now it is a question of time. The words of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Nikolay Pankov in this regard are symptomatic:
"It is still early to speak of a victory over terrorism; Russian raids will continue ... "
making it clear that the war continues according to the trend of recent months and that the support necessary for Syrian land operations will not be interrupted.
However, it is on the political level that the announcement of the Russian withdrawal has a greater effect.
Putin's decision is in line with the ceasefire agreement, highlighting Moscow's consistency in its application; it is also in line with the strategy chosen by Russia from the early hours of the intervention in Syria: to fight terrorism with concrete results and to expose the contradictions and political games of others. At the same time, Putin escapes any hypothesis of "expansionism" in the Middle East, the main line of Western criticism at the September landing.
The Russian bombings of recent months if they have done damage to the Islamist militants, as many have done on the image plane to the US-led coalition. The two sides converge on the opposition to Assad and the Kremlin's ability was to put it to good use: incensed by the fight against terrorism, the Russians fought their political enemies, embarrassing the West, not only unable to remove air from the terrorism, but even to make people understand which way it is.
The data has geopolitical importance because it represents a historical reversal of good / bad perception in public opinion.
The Russians, usually not accustomed to playing the good part, managed to get out of Syria with healthy bones, obtaining undeniable military results and leaving the world with ethical judgment on the behavior of others. From this point of view, Assad was served more by Russia than Assad by Russia.
In the (probable) case of burning the Libyan theater, the effect achieved by Moscow will be further accentuated. It will be even easier to distinguish between peacemakers and warmongers.
Waiting for the war to take the definitive path, we expect a nod from western capitals and in particular from Washington, hitherto inert and enveloped in the November elections. The Caliphate in Syria sooner or later will be defeated and Putin will take considerable part of the merit.
When we return to talk about Ukraine, strategic forces in Europe and sanctions, it is likely that this factor will weigh heavily.
(Photo: SAA)
