Work begins on reaching a general peace agreement in Syria. Under a copious snow, at the Rixos President hotel in Astana, capital of Kazakhstan, the main protagonists of the war that lasts from the 2011 confront each other to put an end to a tragedy with incalculable human and material costs.
Two central aspects:
- peace talks are organized by Russia, Iran and Turkey, the first actors of the Syrian theater that, although in different ways, are officially invested with the role of being indispensable problem solver;
- talks take place in the cold Astana, capital of a country fully included in the Russian geopolitical space, confirming what will be Syria tomorrow is no longer a Western affair or at least not exclusively.
The talks are the prelude to another session scheduled for early February in Geneva, but for modalities and participants they are emblematic of the weights that will influence the final agreements. The expected duration is only 24 hours, which under the diplomatic profile has a very specific meaning: this round of talks does not serve to get to a specific point, as to establish officially who will really have a say.
In addition to the aforementioned Russia, Iran and Turkey (which did not send foreign ministers, but second-rate delegates), the government of Damascus, the cartel representing the main opposition to Assad and the apathetic Staffan de Mistura, took part in the session UN special and so far an impalpable mediator.
The United States, struggling with a real revolution inside Washington, are in the delicate phase of passing powers and are limited to being present with the US ambassador in Astana without the support of a special delegation. It is the signal of the sunset of American Middle Eastern politics linked to the Obama administration, awaiting the new Trump era assets.
The work, opened by the Kazakh foreign minister Kairat Abdrakhmanov, takes place in a harsh climate, and not only for snow and the -15 ° of Astana.
Bashar Jaafari, Syrian ambassador to the UN and head of the Assad delegation, will not meet opposition representatives directly. The talks will take place by "interposed person" through the mediation of Russia and Turkey.
The data also speaks volumes about the actual political and military situation in the field. If on the one hand Moscow is the sponsor of Syrian interests, on the other is Ankara to guarantee for the rebel groups, of which it has become the political representative. It is no coincidence that among all the opposition groups present in Astana, the role ofArmy of Islam, supported by Turkey and present at the talks after the guarantee of a removal from Saudi Arabia (main partner up to 2015).
In short, the rapprochement between Moscow and Ankara, begun in June, 2016 has had among its main purposes and effects that of having a bilateral impact on the "Syrian question", making the two countries the absolute protagonists of a possible future agreement.
If Russia in this way consolidates the investment made in the Middle East, Turkey transforms a politically catastrophic scenario into a diplomatic triumph until yesterday: however things will go to Astana first and then to Geneva, the armed groups of the north (especially the Turkmen component) will have their part; it is the price that Assad will have to pay to stay in the saddle.
The other side of the coin obviously concerns the Kurds, whose exclusion from the works is the only point on which all the parties agree, Including Iran.
As we support this column from last summer, those who will pay the highest price for the future reorganization of Syria, will be the Kurds. Despite the great military progress on the front of Raqqa, as soon as the American "release" will have its effects, the geopolitical fallout will be visible. In this sense, the weight of Turkey on the fundamental alliance with Washington is and will remain decisive.
(photo: web)
