Agreement between the USA and Russia. In Syria we start again with the "ceasefire" in effect from Monday evening. The announcement, given by the US Secretary of State Kerry and the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov after the meeting in Laos, in theory dictates the conditions for restarting the peace negotiations in Geneva. We say "in theory" because in all probability the ceasefire will have results that are not too different from that of February, which lasted in essence less than two months.
The agreement is based on two preliminary rulings:
- end of the Syrian and Russian air force raids on the so-called "moderate rebels";
- definitive release of the same from Islamist groups recognized as terrorists.
The agreement is valid throughout the country, but specifically would serve to ease a situation that has become catastrophic in the urban area of Aleppo especially for civilians. The fragility of the agreement is clear and revolves around an opposing view of the Syrian framework that the US and Russia at least on this occasion do not let leaked from the official statements.
For the States, the responsibilities of the humanitarian disaster in Aleppo are all headed by the government of Damascus (and in Moscow ...); for the Russians, on the contrary, the war in Syria is due exclusively to the American support to the anti-Assad militias.
Although Washington and Moscow pretend not to know, the second preliminary ruling of the "ceasefire" agreement makes it in vain: as already demonstrated in February, distinguishing the "moderate" factions from the jihadists is in fact impossible on the ground and often very difficult even from an ideological point of view. So the raids of the loyalist forces will continue and so will American aid to the opposition forces. On one point, however, USA and Russia really converge: the neutralization of Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (new name of Al Nusra) and of the Islamic State.
In this regard it is necessary to await the moves of Turkey, whose operation Shield of the Euphrates it has now entered the third week. Ankara has for years been the sponsor of the main anti-Assad rebel groups that infest the northern Syrian territories (including Jabhat Fateh al-Sham) but has steered decisively, re-establishing dialogue with Moscow and starting a massive military campaign against the Caliphate. Strong concentrations of armored troops are reported at the border with Raqqa Governorate and the first losses are counted. The September 9 takes note of two wagons Sabra destroyed and three fallen soldiers. Erdogan's decision to prevent the osmosis between the Syrian Kurds and the PKK militiamen (true goal of Euphrate Shield), which can be implemented thanks to the silent approval of Moscow, Teheran and Damascus, could have as its counterpart the very loosening of support for the northern jihadists.
In spite of the rumors about the next "ceasefire", the most important military news comes from the northern front. The Syrian army, after four years, has again control of the communication routes between Latakia and Idlib, closing the militia of Jaysh Al Fateh over the Al-Ra'i mountains, close to the Turkish border. To the commandos of the 103a brigade of the Republican Guard and Falcons of the Desert (v.reportage), new 1000s would be joined Fouj Al-Mughawayr Al-Bahir (the Syrian marines) just trained by Russian personnel, in addition to those already present on the front.
Waiting for the application of the "ceasefire" next Monday, we also await the evolution of Turkish operations. From Ankara's military choices we will understand the framework of true alliances on the ground and the next political scenario.
(photo: SANA / Türk Silahlı Kuvvetleri)
