Syria. The "cease fire" comes into force. Saving Accounts to the North while Expecting US Elections

(To Giampiero Venturi)
12/09/16

With the "ceasefire" now in force (planned for the 18,45 now in Damascus), military operations continue on all fronts. The main novelty is that the militiamen of Ahrar Al Sham they refused the agreement declaring themselves willing to continue the war against government forces.

In reality, the group is among those against whom the Syrian military operation, aimed at regaining control of the northern part of the country, would in any case be extended. Ahrar Al Sham it is often considered part of the "moderate" galaxy of the rebels, despite the presence of Islamist Salafi columns in its ranks.

Just in the north, in the Latakia Governorate, the loyalists tighten their grip towards the west, who have now closed the fundamentalist rebels in the mountains near the Turkish border. Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (Eg Al Nusra), departments of the Free Syrian Army and Turkmen militia gangs. The city of Jisr Al-Shugour would be in the viewfinder with possible collapse of the entire north-eastern front. This is not the first time this scenario has occurred. How things will evolve will depend a lot on the Turkish political and logistical support for the rebel militiamen, until yesterday continuous and copious. Ankara's new course in Syria does not rule out a different approach in the near future (v.articolo).

The "ceasefire" would thus become only an umbrella on Aleppo, built by mutual agreement with the United States and Russia to ease the suffering of the civilian population in an area where the military solution is actually very complex. Nevertheless there is a strong government pressure in the southern district of Al-Amariya, where building by building is being fought with Assad's army in continuous progress. 

In the north-east the safety of the Turkish areas of the controlled areas in Syrian territory continues (on the western bank of the Euphrates). There is talk of a convergence on Al-Bab, the historic stronghold of the Caliphate. It would be an enlargement of Shield of the Euphrates significant with significant geopolitical implications.

As news arrives about the recruitment of adolescents among the jihadist ranks (100 dollars a month to fight against the Syrian Armed Forces), Assad speaks of total reconquest and without mediation from the city of Daraya, a few days back under the control of Damascus.

The general feeling is that, as happened in February, all the parties run to position themselves in the best possible way in view of a "ceasefire", which however fragile (v.articolo), will force everyone to deal with the actual situation on the ground.

In all this the militiamen of the Caliphate, the only ones to have only enemies on paper, react to Deir-Ezzor where Syrian air raids are intensified in the industrial zone and along the banks of the Euphrates, used by jihadists as a supply route for the forces besiegers. The 104a Parade Brigade of the Republican Guard, commanded by Druse general Issam Zahreddine, would always be under pressure. The eventual attack in Iraq of the Armed forces of Baghdad on the ISIS stronghold of Mosul, could change the cards on the table, generating an overthrow of jihadist defectors right on the Syrian front.

In any case, in the next few hours the clashes will intensify more than anything between the Governorate of Latakia and Idlib. The autumn race, regardless of the "cease-fire", look further ahead: the November US elections are approaching and the true turning point of the Syrian crisis will no doubt come from the polls.

(photo: Türk Kara Kuvvetleri-SAA)