Syria: what happens during the ceasefire

(To Giampiero Venturi)
01/03/16

The beginning of the ceasefire coincides with an apparent substantial silence. In reality, both in the field and in the capitals of the countries involved, the activity is fervent. The situation is fluid but there are objective certainties. The first is that the war in Syria has entered a new phase, probably the last one.

On the ground there is still the slow but progressive advance of the government, first to the north on the front of Latakia-Idlib. On the western side, the Damascus troops have now reached the Turkish border, closing the game against the terrorists supported by Ankara. The advance continues along the Latakia-Aleppo axis proceeding east and north. 

On the central front there are at least two important new entries to register:

  • yet another failed assault by the Caliphate terrorists in Deir ez-Zur against the 104 paradesa Republican Guard Brigade, commanded by the legendary general Issam Zahreddine. Most of the deaths in the ISIS ranks would be Saudi, Moroccan, Malaysian and Egyptian citizens.
  • Further west unit of the 67a 18 Brigadea Armored division snatched control of the Jabal Mountains from the ISIS militias, just above Palmyra. The dispute has lasted since the Syrian army began to regain control of the Homs-Palmyra highway in the summer, reversing the fate of the war. Damascus troops are now at 3 km from the west flank of the heights that dominate the archaeological sites. The conquest has an important repercussion on the whole east front: the area, besides being strategic to recover Palmyra, is also very rich in oil.

On the political level the predominant factor is the doubt of the self-styled countries fighting against the Islamic State on the introduction of land forces in Syria. As claimed by the Saudi spokesman, General Asseri, Riad after having redeployed warplanes in Incirlik in Turkey, he would have reiterated his willingness to deploy troops, raising however doubts about the role, objectives and dynamics of employment. 

The same doubts would be raised by the United States, very focused on the November elections but careful not to let the situation get out of hand.

Turkey in fact pushes for an escalation in order to preserve its role near the Syrian border and continues to use the artillery against the Kurds and against positions of the Islamic State (as reported by the private Dogan agency) north of Aleppo. If confirmed, this last datum would have a tactical and strategic significance together: on the one hand favoring the Turkmen rebels supported by Ankara, often in contrast with the Islamic State for regional leadership issues; on the other, to show the world its commitment against international terrorism.

The United States, as a leading country in the anti-terrorist coalition, would have renewed the choice to materially support rebel opposition groups, in the belief that this could stem the Caliphate. The aspiring President Hillary Clinton, careful not to contradict the political choices of recent years (Dem and Republicans on this line have always agreed) has expressed very clear words in this sense.

However, the events of the last 6 months show that ISIS can be beaten militarily. Just want it.

What is certain is that developments over the next two months will say many things about Syria's political and territorial future.

(Photo: Türk Silahlı Kuvvetleri / SAA)