Rumors are multiplying about direct intervention by the armed forces of Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Syrian territory. In the Ankara artillery bombardment we gave direct testimony in the Latakia region, near the Ottoman border (see reportage). On the plans of an effective terrestrial invasion, the speech is more complex.
At this time, for all the parties, the principle holds that if the war ended, in order to achieve negotiating success, results would be needed on the ground. This is net of the fact that the government of Damascus has no intention of giving up the bone and of coming to terms with the terrorists. Not only. According to what was declared a few days ago by Walid al-Moallem, Foreign Minister of Damascus "foreign land troops entering Syria will return home in coffins".
Despite the mass of troops on the border, the current possibilities for Turkey to venture into Syria are scarce. The worsening of the managed front of the Turkmen terrorists affiliated to Al Nusra would prevent a "humanitarian" coverage of the expedition and discover the Turkish cards once and for all. The political price would be very high. The presence of the Russian air guardian in the area and the fact of being a NATO member would in any case rule out any one-sided chance of Ankara, which is particularly uneasy on this day.
Looking south, the position of Saudi Arabia is different, if for no other reason than not having the Atlantic bond. But is Riad really intending to expose itself militarily on a large scale?
The Saudi General Staff claims it is ready to participate in any ground operation that the US-led coalition decides to undertake. As claimed by the Saudi general Ahmed Asseri also spokesman for the operations in Yemen, Riyadh would even offer itself as a sort of hub for all the Gulf States, intending to leave for the trip to Syria: Kuwait, Bahrain, Emirates and the inevitable Qatar have already given the go ahead.
Even strategic coordination with Turkey would be inevitable (summit between Saudi and Turkish senior officials a week ago), but is the scenario plausible?
Unconfirmed sources of Online Defense assert that Saudi forces would be stacked in Jordan along the Desert Highway, one of the three main north-south road directions of the Hashemite kingdom. At this point it is necessary to clarify some aspects.
Saudi Arabia officially participates in air raids against the Caliphate militias together, among others, in Jordan (King Abdallah himself made himself known by piloting one of the fighters engaged in missions against terrorists in person).
On this column we have often expressed doubts about the ideological virginity of the Saudis; the fact remains, however, that at least on the official level a coordination between Amman and Riad exists. More than anything else there is the subjection of the Jordanians, destined by History to get stuck among the whims of their neighbors, all of them particularly difficult. Unable to deny transit in the name of a "noble mission" and a (more or less) common Sunni vision of Islam, the virtuous King Abdallah would be forced to endorse the project of the Gulf monarchies without saying a word. Common exercises with Saudis and the US are on the agenda, and Washington's pressure on quiet Amman is still very high.
The Saudis would enter Syria from the south (less than three hours in the tank from Damascus) in the area of the Daraa governorate, where the revolt against Assad in the 2011 began and where the activities of the Islamist terrorists of Jaysh al-Islām (Army of Islam) and of Aḥrār al-Shām they have been consolidated for some time (even the Russian raids ...). Both groups are funded by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Drawing conclusions is automatic.
Although US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter has endorsed the expedition, with the Syrian conflict still underway the intervention of Saudi troops in Syria is however to be considered highly unlikely. Only a large-scale deployment of US forces on the ground could allow for Riad's chance, but the scenario is political for three reasons:
- Beside Assad there are the Russians
- Waiting for the Saudi Sunnis there would be Hezbollah and Iran, leaving apocalyptic scenarios to be imagined.
- No military operation of land on a still sovereign Syria would ever have the support of the United Nations and the international community
Is it still possible to imagine Turkey and Saudi Arabia as ravenous predators ready to share the meat of a wounded animal? The problem is that the animal shows signs of recovery and that hunting in the Middle East appears as always extremely difficult.
(Photo: القوات البرية الملكية السعودية)
