The news from the Syrian chessboard follows with great rapidity. On the one hand, military developments with particular regard to the north and central-eastern fronts. On the other hand, official statements that suggest disturbing geopolitical tendencies at the present time.
Let's go by degrees.
On the western sector of Aleppo at the dawn of February 19 a large counter-offensive was launched by the terrorists of Al Nusra, Ahrar Al Sham and other Islamist satellite groups, flanked by the FSA. The operation would have ended in a disaster with more than 40 militiamen killed and an unknown number of vehicles destroyed.
In the same sector the 154a Republican Guard Brigade supported by Hezbollah militias is allegedly driving the town of Anadan (12 km from Aleppo). The town is on the road to Azaz which arrives in Turkey, the main artery for the influx of new terrorists from the north.
Many jihadists involved in yesterday's operations in Aleppo would have transited from the Bab Al Hawa border, on the M45 that joins the western part of the Aleppo Governorate with Reyhanli in Turkey.
The news does not add anything new compared to what we have been saying for days, but the confirmations of Ankara's involvement (by now undeniable) are added to the political news of the last few hours.
Sources in the Arab newspaper Raialyoum report the words of a Russian diplomat according to which Russian President Vladimir Putin would not hesitate to hit Turkey if Ankara's troops were to enter Syrian territory. We talk about "Reaction without hesitation and without limits".
Moscow's irritation is confirmed by Putin's appeal to the UN Security Council to put Turkish maneuvers on the border with Syria on the agenda.
In these same hours the President of the United States Obama would have had a telephone conversation with Erdogan and would have urged moderation both Ankara and the Kurdish militias (both formally allies of Washington but at war with each other). In non-diplomatic terms, the US would ask Turkey to stop the artillery fire on Syrian territory and the Kurdish YPG not to irritate the Turks by getting too close to the border.
The American position is all the more uncomfortable the more one considers that the northern front could collapse by April and that the Armed Forces of Damascus and Kurdish militias have no intention of giving up right now that they are winning and catching up.
We have argued in this column that from a logical point of view it is very difficult for Ankara to venture into an isolated military initiative in Syria. A cross-border operation would be an act of war for Damascus and the implications would be unpredictable. A similar speech was made for Saudi Arabia more concerned with assuming the leadership of the Sunni front than to join the fray.
However, the Erdogan variable and the unpredictability of Ankara's military circles, which are less and less reliable along the secular axis which in theory would be secular guardians, remains.
Making the picture even more uncertain is the 5 article of the Atlantic Treaty which provides for the mutual aid of all NATO member states in the event of an attack on a member country. Whether Turkey is shielding the Alliance of which it is a part or whether it can be a brake on its geopolitical raids is all to see.
Certainly there is a great fire that continues to throw gasoline.
As we write units of Qawat Al-Nimr (Tiger Forces) secure Za'lanah on the road between Aleppo and Raqqa. Slowly but the circle against the Caliphate begins to take shape.
(Photo: Türk Silahlı Kuvvetleri)
