Some like it cold (the war), but the USA and Russia mean quietly ...

(To Giampiero Venturi)
20/03/17

Tightened in morbid expectation, we draw the first balance on the gap that divides Trump's election campaign from his first 60 days in power.

In terms of internal politics the bomb tycoon exploded, no doubt about it. The pivot of the activities so far is represented by the ban on immigration, by the repatriation of illegal immigrants and by the study of embankments to Obama's tax authorities. Background is the bad relationship with the media, which has become systemic to the point of heavily influencing information. Not an hour goes by that agencies around the world do not strike a gaffe, a pimple or a cavity from the American President. But if it is true that the inflation of something lowers its unit value (even of the news), then sooner or later public opinion will remain indifferent.

In two months, the establishment's attacks against Uncle Donald overlapped, however, to the point of talking openly about the white coup and impeachment maneuvered, even involving his deputy Pence (read article). 

It was a foregone conclusion that Trump had chosen a conflicting path for his stay in Washington, but in terms of internal politics and media outbreaks of theancien régime however, they will be measured only with numbers. We are talking about infrastructure, taxation, work, home security, etc. In this sense, the distance between the Trump administration and the Obama administration is not necessarily greater than others in the past. Just think of the beginning of the Reaganomics or the arrival of Obama himself after the Bush era. What will change will only be the support of the system and to understand its effects it will take time.

Conversely, the knot to be solved in a shorter time, concerns the Trump line in foreign policy. After the electoral utterances against NATO, pro Brexit, against Brussels and after the winks in Moscow, the alarm in the halls of power has reached beyond the alert levels.

Trump's main problems are the team. Forced to run like outsider Republican, hated by party hawks at least as much as by the liberal DEMs, Uncle Donald had to surround himself with men outsideestablishment classic, with obvious repercussions on media protections and on reliability itself.

The first tile was Michael Flynn, National Security Advisor opposed by everyone even before the November vote. Whether Flynn was killed by a conspiracy in February is of interest to a certain extent: the fact remains that the only possible idea of ​​an agreement with the Russians has unleashed the palace wives.

The Flynn case brings us into the heart of expectations or fears that the chancelleries around the world have matured in the last three months: what relationship will Washington and Moscow have in the coming years?

From the first words of the US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, the music doesn't seem to have changed much. The first warnings in Moscow regarding the Donbass seemed closer to the republican language of the Cold War than to a new season of kisses and hugs.

Is it a studied tactic or does Trump really have his hands tied?

Probably both.

Nothing is more "politically incorrect" than a geopolitical understanding between the two alpha males of global politics, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. The internal and external resistances are many and the possible repercussions are not completely decipherable. If in domestic politics a major obstacle to the "trump" is the filter of the prosecution, in foreign policy in addition to the media and the break-in of the new diplomatic corps, the tycoon New Yorker has to deal mainly with the old Republican guard. The Bush clan, just to give an example, declared the white card 8 November ...

There is an important component of the American right that does not want to hear about detente with Putin's Russia. It is the ultra-liberal wing, a conservative republican interpretation at times in sauce neocon, no less globalist than the DEM of the Keynesian school.

Obviously not everyone has stayed in the 900 and things move in some way. For now, the USA and Russia are forced to behave like two guys who meet at a party, but pretend they don't know each other. They talk to each other, but they do it at lower and more technical levels. The mutual chiefs of inter-agency staff Dunford and Gerasimov for example, have already met twice since the Trump settlement.

What really matters are the results and not the claims. The practical feedback of the US-Russian contacts, for now there are two:

  • in Syria, military collaboration in the joint campaign against ISIS is producing effects;
  • in Ukraine the tap opened in Kiev is closing.

As for Syria, Trump's short blanket is called Israel: too much rope in Damascus cannot be given, due to Iran. The important thing for now is to recover part of the disasters made by the previous administrations. Not being cut out of the games, it would already be a great result.

We are not talking about the end of the honeymoon between Washington and Kiev, but the fruits will come with spring. The taps officially never opened, cannot officially close ... but the outbreak in the 2014 with Maidan is destined to go out. The proof is the nervousness of the Kiev government, which intensifies military provocations to seek a reaction from Moscow alongside the Donbass separatists. It must be remembered, however, that if Yanukovich is no longer in Kiev, Kerry is no longer in Washington ... Europe should learn.

By the way. In the meantime, the European Union is looking for the best way to commit suicide by keeping well away from any possible agreement between Washington and Moscow. Trump will be in office at least until 2020; Putin, certainly until 2024. It would be enough to do the math ...

Committed to very different budgets, Brussels discredits both for now, following the wave of a mainstream which could soon become the only global point of reference.

(photo: web)