Pressure on Raqqa. The Syrian army is approaching

(To Giampiero Venturi)
08/06/16

On some international media (including RAI televideo), references to the Syrian army's offensive on Raqqa, self-proclaimed capital of the Islamic State, have appeared in recent days.

It is important not to confuse the city with the Governorate of which it is the capital. The current status of the front sees a sensitive advance of the Armed Forces of Damascus along the Ithriyah-Raqqa road, with the main objective being the Tabqa air base (photo below), less than 30 km.

Tabqa is strategic in virtue of the dam (one of the six that cuts the Euphrates) that forms Lake Assad, the largest Syrian artificial basin, essential for the water and electricity supply in the region. Syrian troops head to the south bank for the first time in the Raqqa Governorate. The city, the heart of the Caliphate, is on the north bank of the river, at 80 km from the current front line.

Alternatives to taking Tabqa could be:

  • go up the course of the Euphrates aiming to separate the Governorate of Aleppo from that of the jihadist "capital", and cut the territory of the Islamic State in two;
  • strengthen the offensive south of Raqqa to reach the besieged city of Deir el-Zor. In these hours the wagons of the 60a e 67a Damascus army armored brigade are engaged precisely in the offensive east of Palmyra, in an oil-rich desert area.

In any case, the final victory in Damascus passes from the south and not from Aleppo.

Despite continuous counter-offensive attempts, ISIS militants would be in great difficulty also due to the strong pressure of the Kurds ofSDF (Syrian democratic forces) on the Manbij line (100 km east of Aleppo). Last-minute news would give Kurdish entry into the city.

At the same time, containing offensives in the north and south is increasingly difficult for terrorists, even if the situation, as confirmed by local sources, still seems to be very fluid.

The conquest of Manbij will allow the Kurds, flanked by Arab militiamen and supported by the USA, to cut off supplies between the Turkish border and the Caliphate. Pending the reaction of Ankara, whose position towards Washington in this regard is at least enigmatic, from a political point of view it would be a very important fact, at least because it highlights the importance of relations between Damascus and Kurds for the future of Syria.

The siege of the Caliphate turns from hour to hour into a competition between forces that contribute to fighting it. This explains the intervention of American special forces aimed at indirectly weakening Damascus in the north-eastern provinces and the massive resumption of Russian air raids on the jihadists of Al-Nusra Front in the Aleppo area.

Since early June, Russian attacks have been uninterrupted on all cities in the Aleppo belt controlled by Islamist militants. The objective would be to facilitate the return of loyalist forces even in the provinces outside the Caliphate's control, so as to balance the advantages obtained by the pro-westerners of theSDF.

What can you expect in Syria immediately?

The news that could make the media "bang" is always three:

  • the fall of Assad (very unlikely);
  • the collapse of the Islamists on the Aleppo front (equally unlikely for now);
  • the release of Raqqa (possible within a few months).

The thermometer of the situation will be given by the US support for the Kurdish land offensive in the northeast. If it increases, putting Turkey's patience at risk, it will be a clear sign that Raqqa and the Islamic State lines to the south are failing.  

(photo: القوات المسلحه السورية)