Holland and Turkey at loggerheads: in the background, the end of the European Union

(To Giampiero Venturi)
14/03/17

The tones of these days have not been used for decades. The Netherlands and Turkey implement respective diplomatic restrictions and move on to direct threats.

After the Dutch were not allowed to land on the Turkish minister Cavusoglu involved in the electoral tour with the Turkish emigrants, the situation precipitated: violent protests in Turkey, clashes in the streets, police interventions, threats from Ankara and the Dutch hard line. It doesn't seem real, but it's 2017.

What's behind it?

On the one hand the legislative elections in the Netherlands, scheduled for the 15 March. Wilders nationalist right is growing rapidly, to the point of contending the primacy in the country at VDD, Prime Minister Rutte's Party for Freedom and Democracy. Despite last-minute polls speak of a moderate comeback (the same stratagem as the media mainstream used to counter Brexit's eurosceptics and Trump's voters), a substantial slice of the "orange" population has now broken the ice of political embarrassment and is now consolidating the hard core of the PVV by Wilders.

It is not a phenomenon of protest. For several years in the Netherlands, as in the rest of Europe, there has been a palpable discontent against Brussels and the anti-sovereign policies linked to it. Before Wilders it was the charismatic Pim Fortuyn who catalyzed what would later be called "populist thrusts". The death of the director Theo Van Gogh in the 2004 killed by an Islamic extremist after the release of the film Submission, did the rest.

Rutte, prime minister spokesman for the Dutch pro-European authorities and shield of the mainstream politician, has his back to the wall. Ignore the Turkish provocations and scrape other points in the polls in favor of the nationalist right or ride in disused waves in the salons of the bon ton politic?

The answer is in the question. The indefinite permissiveness of which Holland is the queen par excellence has a very high electoral cost for institutional parties. Anyone wishing to survive the "nationalist wave" that is shaking Europe must inevitably change battle horses. Continuing to ignore Islamic expansion and Islamist threats no longer pays off and even progressive parties are forced to adjust the game.

Rutte knows very well that if the tones were lowered with Ankara, particularly aggressive at this time, the 15 March would be swept away. 

On the other side is Erdogan. On these pages, in the general skepticism, two years ago we posed the problem of the Islamization of Turkey for the first time. We have also repeatedly argued that the abandonment of the Ataturk secular line is actually instrumental to the current Erdogan circle, more interested in consolidating its power inside and outside the country than reciting the verses of the Koran.

In April, a referendum will be held in Turkey, approving the reform launched by the Turkish Parliament on January 21, which foresees the expansion of presidential powers. According to the reform Erdogan would have more power in the management of the state of emergency (among other things never revoked from the last attempted coup of July) and would have more guarantees in case of impeachment. Drumming on the "European racists" is a very rewarding card for the Turkish president because he shakes an electorate long shaped around an atavistic historical victimization, never completely dormant in the collective Ottoman consciousness.

What will all this lead to?

The Netherlands and Turkey will not be hurt, but they will lay bare a general framework that cannot be niche.

The countries are both part of NATO, which is a further sign of the actual internal holding of the Alliance and how the relations between the West and Turkey have changed.

Even more surprising is the political dynamism of the Hague, which for many years has not taken a position in foreign policy without a prior sharing of the line with European partners and Atlantic allies. The datum is symptomatic of the state of the art in Brussels, where the ability to take on a political role and that of making us cohesion around it seem very far from the standards necessary to protect the direct interests of the individual nation states.

The positions expressed by the neighboring countries and the central EU institutions are also indicative. In the general silence, Denmark supports the firm position of the Dutch, followed by Le Pen who distances himself from Hollande's soft line. From Brussels, eager to be seen still alive in view of crucial electoral appointments, comes the office defense of Holland.

Under the blackmail of mass emigration, whose tap is in Erdogan's hands, Europe finds itself once again fragile. The show of shields of Turkey showcases above all the total absence of a continental geopolitical project that takes into account the actual needs of the peoples.

Rutte is trying to put a piece of desperation, but the problem is structural. It is not by pursuing the last-minute vows that the light will return. In all likelihood the 16 March newspapers will headline "Populism in the Netherlands advances but does not break through", aligning itself with the plethora of Titanic players who ignore an ineluctable truth: Europe is sinking fast. 

Read also:

Golpe in Turkey: let's see clearly

USA and Turkey: end of a love?

Turkey: The coup failed, now Erdogan has a free hand

(photo: web)