The Lausanne accords on Iranian nuclear power make headlines as the viaticum for a new world of peace. However, diplomacy counts more than demagogy and not everyone accepts the news by peeling their hands. Country you go, reaction you find. Apart from the ideological frescoes of the Netanyahu administration, the basic reasons why the wink at Iran makes Israel nervous are essentially two. One is the nature of Iran. The other is that of Israel.
Let's go to order.
In '79, Persia by Reza Pahlavi disappears by virtue of Khomeini's Islamic revolution, the first of modern times. In Tehran, Washington leaves caviar and oil and finds a volcano full of hatred and resentment. As it is commonly used at the chancelleries of half the world, "Iran is not the last wheel of the cart ..." but a demographic bomb, with huge oil reserves. His great diplomatic tradition, his geographical position and not least, a sprinkling of self-esteem, make him a high level regional power.
It is self-evident that the balances change and with them the alliances: the Nasserian Arabs pampered by the Soviets in an anti-western key, they become useful as a barrier. At Camp David, Egypt is recycled, transforming itself from a fistula to a trusted ally. The outsider Saddam is fed into the war against Iran and an uncomfortable Baathist, he becomes the everyday friend.
These are the years' 80, the years of Rambo and Rocky: in the Middle East the enemy of Tel Aviv becomes Shiite. Without prejudice to Gaddafi and some indelible pockets of dislike for the Jewish state, in the Arab world only Assad-father and his heirs due to Hezbollah seem a tangible threat. The link between Iran and Syria, the only Islamists in the non-Sunni area, are known to all.
But the real problem is not even Damascus. The Arab-Israeli wars have spoken clearly: Israel fears the Arabs but up to a certain point. In southern Lebanon, in the territories and in the Golan he put serious stakes and knows how to contain them, especially when they have the status of states and armed force. Israel is stronger than all the Arabs put together. The real risk is Persia.
"The road to Jerusalem passes through Baghdad," Khomeini recited at the time of the war with Iraq. Ça va sans dire: two irrepressible thrusts seem to outclass any political contingency: on the one hand, the elimination of the Jewish state, an objective inherent in the genome of the Khomeini revolution; on the other, the spirit inherited from Cyrus the Great that has pushed the Persians for millennia to look towards the West. It will be the cedars of Lebanon, it will be the most welcoming Mediterranean of the Strait of Hormuz… the fact is that Iran always points to this side. That there were tough people beyond the Euphrates, the Romans also learned at the time of the Parthians ...
The existence of an Islamic and Shiite Iran, raised with the mission of the purification of Jerusalem, it is therefore in itself a headache for Israel that in its turn cannot withdraw from its natural vocation: to exist.
No other country in the world seems so tied to this apparently banal function. What exactly it means to let him tell with facts to the different interpretations that the Tel Aviv governments have given us over the decades. However, the recent Likud affirmation does not erase the ultimate instinct that even the most progressive Knesset parties express: living and living with a certain authority.
That the two positions create a vague friction also understands an idiot. Difficult to put together those who want to live well and those who do everything to prevent it. We are not talking about faults, history, reasons, religion and imperialism; we limit ourselves to tautology.
Now the biggest doubt. What will happen now that America owes with Iran to buffer the errors committed in Syria? The Lausanne agreements are not random.
It took four years to understand the mistake made by arming the anti-Assad-son rebels. Four years in which the mistakes made in Iraq, Libya and with the mujahideen in Soviet Afghanistan (which later became the Taliban) have taught nothing.
Now that the Iranian Shiite bubble, so hated by the Gulf monarchies, seems necessary to stem the Sunnite derisions of ISIS and the rampant anarchy in the Middle East, how will it move?
If Iran surrenders to Yemen, increasing its negotiating cards, what other concessions will America make in addition to the Lausanne agreements?
Everything to laugh for example at the triangle of relations between Syria, Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, with Tel Aviv watching nervously.
If it is cold between Israel and Washington, today it is not surprising. It's easy to understand what happened to the Obama era, now in all senses.
Time will tell. Who will not live, amen. The Middle East basically does everything but bore.
Giampiero Venturi
