Behind the euphoria of yesterday's day there is actually nothing. Not even stalemate can be talked about because the fanfare of the statements suggests rather dark clouds on the horizon.
Vienna lost opportunity? Certainly yes if we think of the two central aspects that came out of the summit on the Libyan crisis: the further investiture of Al Sarraj as a man of the West and the ever more concrete possibility of abolishing the embargo on a Libyan government of national unity.
The Secretary of State Kerry is more talkative than ever, convinced that he has taken the right path to unblock the impasse. Washington has decided to cross out the so-called head of factions without delay focusing on the December agreements and the subsequent Al Sarraj landing in Tripoli.
Reading from local sources, however, gives us a less simple picture. In reality, Al Sarraj represents the classic example of a short blanket. If to get together Cyrenaica and Tripolitania it was necessary to take two steps towards Tripoli and the Islamists of the west, now that the steps have become four the front of Tobruk feels betrayed and does not accept the agreements. While presenting the world with a diplomatic success in Libya sheltered from glaring errors, the compromise of Europe and the USA through the alleged new Libyan leader with the Islamic front (mostly the Muslim Brotherhood) was too blurry and ended up pushing away the former allies, probably more reliable, at least for us Italians.
The West supported Tobruk until the end of 2015 and then asked its strong general man Haftar to step aside and accept the leadership of Al Sarraj with a view to a new nebulous political project.
What Kerry presents as infighting between local leaders interested in power over their own backyard is actually a much more serious political framework. The (fragile) agreement in Tripoli that has appeased many ardent Islamist spirits has cut off the more "bourgeois" side of Libya, the one that is more available for a peaceful reconstruction that also takes into account the country's secular history.
The front of Tobruk, armed and supported mainly by Egypt, with theOperation Dignity (photo on the right) by Haftar has shown that he wants to avoid as much as possible a total war between Libyans but above all to have saints in Heaven and to be able to make a very serious and very long war. The eventual end of the embargo in Tripoli would pour more weapons into Libya if it were ever needed and would open the door to even greater tragedy.
The continuous blessing with which Europe and the USA bless Al Sarraj at best will in the short term lead to a nominally united Libya in front of a UN but structurally lacerated seat on the ground. On the medium-long term, instead, there may be the prevalence of Islamic factions whose good faith in the balance of Tripoli is not guaranteed.
In any case, Tobruk will not easily capitulate even by virtue of the interests on Cyrenaica in Cairo, which is not willing to leave the Muslim Brotherhood free. Washington knows this very well and with unlimited support for Al Sarraj it shows that it does not have a truly united Libya as its top priority (v. article). This is also demonstrated by the fact that the US wants everything but tighten relations with Egypt.
Meanwhile, from Rome, while participating in the chorus of declarations, a leaf does not move. Italy avoids losing its balance by avoiding further statements about Haftar and important comments on the possible end of the embargo in Tripoli. It is limited to the usual "we do not fight but we train" on the line of other Italianisms useful to keep allies good and at the same time the so-called guardians of the art 11 of the Constitution.
Meanwhile, however, Italy pays a pledge. This is demonstrated by the episode of Zintan and the fool who was forced by the valid general Serra, removed from the area as unwelcome. Zintan was among the first cities to rebel against Gaddafi and his Berber brigades have been linked to Tobruk since the beginning of the Libyan split in two sections. Today it represents an enclave inside Tripolitania, hostile to Al Sarraj and to anyone who comes to terms with him.
Ironically Serra and Sarraj have a similar surname. Our general then remembers Graziani from colonial times and the propaganda that speaks of betrayal of the Italians, takes advantage of this to beat his tongue on the drum. If it turns out that the same Al Sarraj belongs to the clan that agreed with the Italian colonizers, you're done ...
In Libya we had many friends but we made our life complicated. As long as it is done in time, a clear, unique and above all pragmatic position should be chosen. In short, as close as possible to direct national interests.
(photo: US Department of State / Twitter)
