Libya: The country's future unity is just an illusion

(To Giampiero Venturi)
29/04/16

The dilemma of the Libyan question, already central when Gaddafi was alive and in office, has always been the identification of a charismatic figure that could replace him.

Evidence makes sense in a logic of unity, that is to say giving priority to the identification of Libya as a united and sovereign state.

Not seeing the way out of chaos, the European governments, Italy in the lead, in the last year have acted in a hurry, fueled also by the spectrum of the Islamic State increasingly included in the Maghreb. Political anxiety has thus produced an immediate effect already in terms of communication: to minimize the failure of Unified Protector giving the official impression that the Libyan disorder had a term and above all that it had in a short time.

Beyond the hysteria from social networks  with which the specter of an "ISIS at the gates" was stirred, already a year ago the western governments (United States, Germany, France and Italy above all) insisted that a Libyan national unity executive was a step away from entering in charge. After focusing on Al Thani, in the institutional void and in the Libyan tribal-social chaos, the whole of the West was quick to converge on Fayez Al Sarraj, giving it a more structured and stable image than it is.

Political news from Libya thus became monotonous, but did not correspond to the facts on the ground. Once Al Sarraj landed in Tripoli, he was forced to operate from Abu Sittah, a port area with romantic sunsets but 10 km from the seafront from the city center. If this was initially attributable to the hostility of the Islamist factions linked to the Khalifa al Ghweil government, latest news confirms that his main problem today is General Haftar. He, a former CIA, has always been a meeting point for the apparatuses of the former Gaddafi regime hostile to Islamist tendencies and at the same time a Libyan hub of Arab interests. 

The men of Tobruk Parliament loyal to Haftar continue to oppose the recognition of the government of national unity of Al Sarraj and united to the more hostile factions in Tripoli continue to reject any compromise with those who consider fundamentalist terrorists.

Not only. The troops loyal to Haftar, massively armed from Cairo, march on Sirte with the precise aim of nullifying the Islamist presence (in this case ISIS) from the Libyan coast. Just Al Sarraj would have ordered the alt at this time to the troops that in his opinion should respond to a unified command (his) and not to the general "rebel".

Libya essentially experiences the paradox according to which the West supports a leader, Al Sarraj, who, even if contingently, opposes the war on the Caliphate and no longer enjoys the trust of the historically most pro-Western factions.

The first to have understood it is precisely Egypt, very inclined to make Cirenaica a sort of protectorate. For Cairo, the fight against the former president Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood, especially in the border areas, is a priority, and Haftar, an experienced military man, seems to be the right man. If the geography makes sense, it is worth mentioning that Tobruk is at 130 km from the Egyptian border but at 1300 km from Tripoli ...

What does it derive?

In Libya, the political camps and their respective international protectors come out of the classic schemes. The Islamist federation that oversees Tripolitania has its support from Turkey and Qatar. Vice versa, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, allies of Turkey and Qatar on everything else, in Libya converge with Al Sisi's Egypt, helping Haftar. The alliance has already been tested in Yemen as an anti-Iranian function.

Libya has essentially become a territory of sharing interests related to the huge energy resources it has and the problem of its stability seems to be less tied to a future unity of sovereign nation. To put it briefly and in spite of official statements, the idea of ​​a united Libya in the end does not interest anyone. United States, France, Great Britain, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates today have a prospect of profit in the country that did not exist at the time of Gaddafi. This can suffice.

It is painful to say, but the only country that for energy, geopolitical and security issues would have an interest in Libyan unity is Italy. For now, however, the major effort of the institutions seems to be to divert the neglectful public opinion from future involvement and the related risks.

Fast in the moral judgments but awkward in managing the consequences, we Italians hate the word war. Someone else who does not make the problem meanwhile lucra.

The real problem with Libya is that anyway it will be a drama. Hoping not, we'll probably understand it soon.

(photo: القوات المسلحة الليبية; alghad TV)