The peace talks in Geneva are a bluff and Assad is winning the war

(To Giampiero Venturi)
01/02/16

The international agencies beat updates on the situation in Syria, continuing to refer to the Assad government as a regime and fueling the idea that the Russians are developing an imposing array on the north coast of the country for some kind of enigmatic purposes.

Already from our first direct relationships with Syrian institutions (see article) we realize when the reality of the facts on the ground is far from the large part of information spread by the media.

We would like to focus on two aspects on which the leadership of Damascus seems to have very clear ideas: 1) The peace talks in Geneva are a staging that will lead to nothing; 2) The war turns to the best for Assad's forces and those who have made intelligence with Islamist forces will be forced to take a step back.

Regarding the first point, the news is that today the representatives of Jaysh al-Islam (Army of Islam), fortified by Saudi Arabia, will be among the representatives of the so-called Syrian opposition. The group, whose spokesman is the brother of Zehran Alloush, the leader eliminated by the Russians in the 2015 raids, is none other than the continuation of Saudi interests in Syria. The Sunni whaabite array of fighters has the same ideological references as the qaedidsti of Al Nusra and ISIS (and the Taliban). This morning's attack on the mausoleum of Sayyida Zeinab in Damascus (of which we have witnessed audio, ed) has been claimed by ISIS, but it is part of the style and strategic schemes of other fundamentalist groups as well.

It goes without saying that the Damascus government will not consider an agreement with those it considers to be assassin terrorists, almost always of non-Syrian origin.

The problem is extended to all groups of the so-called moderate Islamism (oxymoron in terminis) financed from the outside to overthrow the Assad government. The only ones that Damascus considers worthy of a comparison are the Syrian dissidents willing to accept a compromise to return to the established legality. 

The official position of Syria does not seem to give space to the spokesmen of the interests of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey considered with the US and in no uncertain terms the planners of the Syrian civil war.

In other words, the Geneva talks are seen from Damascus as a staging to be fed to the media and Western public opinion.

As for the situation on the ground, the idea is growing in Syrian institutions that if a military solution is not enough, the progress made by the government forces in recent months can change the balance of negotiations, pushing foreign powers to let go, especially in terms of funding for dissident armed gangs. It already happened in 2013, when President Assad was considered a doomed by Washington, ready to organize his succession and then review the strategic plans in the Arab country. The evolutions continue. In the coming days, concrete data in hand, we will know more. All that remains is to wait.

(Photo: الجيش العربي السوري)