It is not usual to talk about the Philippines in terms of geopolitics. It happened at the time of the discussed Marcos that between an anti-guerrilla action and the other, he gave aerial means and locations to the masterpieces of war cinema: the exploits of Colonel Kilgore struggling with napalm in Apocalypse Now, owe much to the controversial availability of the former Manila strongman.
Even in that case, however, the Philippines, endowed with a geophysics too similar to Vietnam to be neglected, remained confined to a makeshift role, forced by neighbors with too much larger shoulders.
But sometimes the reflectors come back. And they return to a historical moment in which Southeast Asia is filled with political meanings, so important that they believe developments that are not too remote.
There is much talk in these days of Rodrigo Duterte, presidentissimo of the Republic of the Pacific. It is discussed in all its dimensions, ranging from the unorthodox style to human rights, from summary executions of narcos to the new orientations of foreign policy.
The star of Duterte begins to shine with the mandate of mayor in the city of Davao, a Philippine metropolis of 1 million and a half souls, the main center of the critical island of Mindanao. From a mix between the Asian casino and the Mexican narco-municipality, Davao becomes one of the safest cities not only of the Far east but even from the continent. While not at all resembling Legoland, the Filipino city is a springboard to Duterte, who reinvents a management of absolutist, national and often violent power. On the basis of the zero tolerance of New York memory, the new strong Filipino man adapts the metropolitan experience to a national dimension and begins to think in terms of direct justice: he declares war on crime and equips the police with special powers.
Since taking office as president in May 2016, a real cataclysm takes place in the Philippines. With declarations beyond the limits of provocation, Duterte imposes itself on the attention of the media declaring war without quarter to drug trafficking and corruption. Human rights activists and the international community are beginning to converge on the throne of a man who focuses on contradictory traits but useful for strengthening an unquestionable charisma: he is negotiating with the communist guerrillas after years of armed struggle, he reintroduces the death penalty, he rages with ferocity against the Islamic separatists of Mindanao of Abu Sayyaf. While managing power on the basis of family ties, he shows himself as a man of the people, a champion of independence and a very seductive political and cultural purity for the proud Filipino people.
And on this pivot, the reversal of the route now begun by Manila on an international scale. 
The Philippines has always been an important crutch for US strategies in the Pacific. The Subic and Clark bases made the country's military history until the presence of foreign troops was considered superfluous in the 1991 and the Americans returned home.
Since the 2012, that is when China began to stretch its hands on the South China Sea, the alarm sirens have begun to echo throughout the Pacific and the Seventh Fleet has started to pop up more frequently.
For years, the Philippine Navy could only rely on vessels recycled from the US Navy and Royal Navy. Despite the re-launch and upgrading phase (negotiations for 6 corvette class Minerva e Pohang; projects to acquire submarines) the Hukbong Dagat does not yet have sufficient resources to compete internationally. Except for the amphibious vessel Tarlac of 7000 tons, the flagships are still the patrol boats Former Hamilton, classified as frigates.
So we started talking about a new stable US presence with the re-location of air forces in Clark and a special interest in the island of Palawan. After theEnhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement of the 2014, new 5 bases have been identified throughout the country.
The relaunch of the agreement between the USA and the Philippines was born on two pillars:
- stem the growing Chinese threat;
- combat increasingly strong Islamic terrorism in the south of the archipelago.
But precisely on these two points it seems that Duterte has decided to impose himself, creating an unpredictable friction with Washington only until mid-2016. National-popular policies have led the Philippine president to reopen dialogue with Beijing despite the dispute over territorial waters that ended up in the Court in the Hague. Will China no longer be an enemy for Manila? in the name of a sovereign awakening of Asian nations it may be, argues Duterte.
Not only that: among the president's most striking statements there is also the explicit accusation to the United States of having favored Islamic extremism in the Middle East, with direct consequences for the whole of the Far East.
Duterte, after publicly insulting Obama (retracting only in part), stated that the US special troops present today at Cagayan de Oro (base in Lumbia) and Zamboanga must leave the country, on pain of serious consequences.
Convinced that the alliance with the States is more of a burden than an opportunity, the presidentissimo suggests large changes in the area.
How much Duterte's star will shine is impossible to know. Certainly, however, we will see some good ones.
(photo: Hukbong Daga / web)
