De-escalation and low-profile war: this is the near future of Syria

(To Giampiero Venturi)
12/05/17

At the Astana peace talks in Kazakhstan (updated at 16 next May), some important results have been achieved so far.

The memorandum signed on May 4 by Russia, Iran and Turkey provides for the creation of so-called "de-escalation" zones, similar to the more well-known "no fly zones". There are four areas identified:

- the Idlib region extended to Latakia, Aleppo and Hama;

- the territories north of Homs;

- East Ghouta (metropolitan area east of Damascus);

- the area of ​​Dar'a and Al Quneitra near the Golan.

The idea is of Moscow and allows first of all to lower the volume of the conflict in the whole country, but at the same time to reach a strategic goal: from the agreements are excluded the ISIS, the terrorist groups linked to Al Qaeda (ex Al Nusra) to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ; the war will therefore focus on extremist factions and find a point of convergence between all the countries involved.

Among the protagonists of the works in Astana it is no coincidence that there is Turkey, the great sister of northern Islamists, but ended up in a cul de sac for two reasons:

1) Trump has decided to continue to arm the Kurds fighting on the Raqqa front;

2) the birth of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Levante Liberation Movement) in the north of Syria, a civil war between Islamists is being fueled that puts in difficulty Jaysh to Islam and Free Syrian Army supported by the Turks.

Turkey's interest is to quickly extinguish the fire and reach a minimum gain along the entire border line with Syria. Ankara's hopes are not at odds with the idea of ​​creating buffer areas as a sort of frame around the Arab country. 

What will happen then in Syria?

The military strengthening of Assad will continue and will allow in the coming months to progressively eliminate all the pockets of jihadist resistance in the most important regions of the country. The game is played on two floors.

On the one hand, Damascus continues to sign surrender agreements with rebel groups that deliver heavy weapons in exchange for moving to Idlib Governorate, which has become the gathering point for all Islamist rebels. The agreements allow Syrians to deploy thousands of soldiers elsewhere and to strengthen all the liberated territories: currently the five most important cities in Syria (Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Latakia) are firmly in the hands of the government.

On the other hand, there are the fighting against jihadists excluded from the Astana memorandum that continues throughout Syria at this time. The offensive between Palmyra and Deir Ezzor has started (as we write Russian Mi-8 helicopters they land at Deir Ezzor with hundreds of reinforcement Syrians), the government is also planning to extend south along the Damascus-Baghdad highway towards the Iraqi border . 

However, it will come to form territorial bearings where, at least for the moment, Damascus will have no jurisdiction.

The first is north-east and coincides with Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava). The Kurdish Arabs of the SDF, backed by the US, they released the Tabqa dam on Lake Assad at this time and are a few kilometers from Raqqa, the self-proclaimed capital of the Islamic State. The choice of Trump to continue to arm the Kurds is not at all liked by Ankara, which in the meantime consolidates its positions in the border area of ​​Jarablus, from where it started Shield of the Euphrates in 2016.

In contrast to the Turkish designs, however, there is concentration in the Idlib Governorate of all the jihadist defectors expelled from the rest of Syria. Until all the 2016, the area was the exclusive terrain of the Turkmen militia linked to Al Nusra, armed precisely from Turkey. The papocchio in progress in the Syria of the northwest, is redesigning the relations of force. Since January 2017 about 20.000 terrorists of the former Al Nusra have integrated into the renamed sign Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, headed by Abu Jaber Hashim al-Shaykh. The new group aims to continue the fight against the Shiites (practically the Syrian government, Iranians and others) Hezbollah...) but for leadership reasons he is at loggerheads with Ahrar al-Sham another group of fundamentalist gentlemen, historically supported by Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

In other words, the famous north bearing on the Turkish-Syrian border is in danger of jumping to the extent that the militiamen of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (about 40.000 units, according to intelligence sources) will close the doors in Ankara. In fact it is already happening: the Astana memorandum states that Turkey can access the Idlib Governorate to defend its borders; the fundamentalists of Tahrir al-Sham however they are opposing creating fortifications.

Third ring is the southern front, where Jordan and the United States are laying the groundwork for a ground operation (read article). Under the supervision of Israel, intending to prevent direct access to the Golan of pro-Syrian Shiite groups (Hezbollah above all), the military control of the band from the Mediterranean to the Euphrates is foreseen. In essence, the militiamen of Free Syrian Army will be supported to counteract the restoration of Syrian sovereignty along the Jordanian and Iraqi borders. Damascus for the moment sends troops and continues to march south ...

These are decisive hours for Syria. ISIS is about to lose Raqqa, a three-year symbol of Islamist madness. Damascus is winning the war; the choices of the USA in the delicate match between Kurds and Turkey will establish the final balance.   

The attempt to dismember Syria drawn before the war by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Obama administration (with the indirect ok of Israel) has been strangled. Although nothing will come back as before the 2011, probably Syria will still exist.

(photo: SAA)