Obama-Putin talk: Syria and Ukraine, crisis in parallel

(To Giampiero Venturi)
19/04/16

Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama had a telephone conversation discussing two parallel themes: Syria and Ukraine. It is the first time in a direct comparison that the two scenarios are discussed on the same table in operational terms and that they are publicly reported.

The object of the conversation was officially the maintenance of the ceasefire that came into effect in Syria on February 27 but the halo of the conversation has expanded far beyond.

The Russian and American interests in Syria, whatever they may say, do not coincide. As revealed by the conservative British parliamentarian Davis returning from a recent interview with President Assad, Putin's plan for Syria discussed in Moscow in October, provides lasting support for the Damascus government. The defeat of the Islamic State is the first strategic objective; an agreement between Assad and internal opposition to the extent that Damascus will be willing to accept it, would be its political corollary.

The announcement of the withdrawal of the Russian contingent in March would have been a diplomatic move in this sense, a sort of declaration of good intentions given to the international community. In concrete terms, more than a withdrawal, there was a rotation of vehicles and a greater deployment of helicopters. The decisive aerial contribution for the victories at Palmyra and Qaryatayn would prove it.

For its part, the US now has every interest in getting rid of any collusion with so-called moderate rebel fronts. Assad's armed defenestration now seems to have failed and the goal of a painless way out of the Syrian hornet's nest appears to be the one most readily available.

How is the crisis in the Middle East connected with that in Ukraine?

A ceasefire following the February 2015 Minsk Agreements also exists in the Donbass. As we write, however, shooting continues on the outskirts of Donetsk. The regular army of Kiev and the pro-Russian separatist militias continue to violate the truce in a systematic and daily way with the use of artillery and heavy armored vehicles which according to the agreements should be far from the line of contact of the two fronts. The creeping war has never ended and despite the fact that Ukraine has disappeared from the headlines for more than a year, the state of the art is now this: the east of the Paase is separated and with the help of Moscow, in fact independent from Kiev. 

President Obama would have asked Putin to commit himself to making weapons silent, but it is likely that the tone of the request was different from those used in the 2014. After the incorporation of Crimea into the Russian Federation two years ago and the beginning of the fighting, the collective perception aided by the mass media circuit placed Kiev on the level of the victims and the separatists on that of the aggressors. Even if only on an emotional level, one has the feeling that today it is more difficult to continue on this line.

The undoubted advantages achieved in the field against the Islamic State in Syria have made Moscow more popular in terms of global public opinion or at least less easily hit with moral anathemas. When the Russian intervention in Syria was still in its infancy on this heading we predicted that Moscow's involvement in Syria would have had consistent political returns. The Russian non-reaction to the Sukhoi Turkish demolition in November was part of this journey which now clearly shows its fruits.

A relapse of the Donbass crisis is probably not in Moscow's interests, but the consolidation of one status quo, until yesterday considered unacceptable by all it is already a goal.

The call between the two presidents is however a positive sign. Although the Obama administration is winding down and America is preparing for a decisive change and a makeover of its foreign policy, showing that Washington and Moscow are still talking is extremely important. Especially in the Cold War climate refurbished with the NATO and Russian military crossings verified between the Atlantic, Baltic, Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea.

(photo opening: Giorgio Bianchi)