The news of the meeting in the Emirates between the nominal Libyan leader Al Serraj and the Generalissimo of Cyrenaica Haftar, apparently makes a bang. After years of civil war resulting from the war on Gaddafi in 2011, the possibility of repairing the rift that divides Libya into (at least) two parts would open up.
Tripoli and Tobruk, the seat of Parliament that has so far rejected the National Unity Government, would have agreed to organize elections by March 2018, laying the foundations for a first political agreement and for reuniting the constellation of armed groups that infest the Country. Behind the blast of trumpets, the scenarios remain full of shadows. First of all, we need to clarify the political value of the agreement.
Al Serraj and Haftar, according to diplomatic sources, have already met in secret in Egypt in February. There has never been the official confirmation, but the dialogue tests have been real since the beginning of 2017. Two decisive steps were taken to arrive at face-to-face and a draft agreement. The first is the role of Haftar, who was put in the corner by the farcocks of Skhirat of December 2015, but in reality master of eastern Libya, with the help of Egypt by Al Sisi. Beyond the predictions of the Obama administration and the EU, it has never left the scene, but has in fact strengthened its positions on the ground. The return of Russia to the ancient African strongholds has allowed the Libyan general to receive an international crowning, always denied by the Tripoli government and its allies. The meeting with the Russian authorities of January on the aircraft carrier Kuznetsov, invested it with the role of official interlocutor of the Government of National Unity.
The second important figure is the removal of Trump from Tripoli which in practice has resulted in two moves: distancing the US from the Libyan tangle (reiterated in the meeting between the American president and Gentiloni); cooling of the special relationship that Al Serraj had for more than a year with the West. This last point is the crux of the whole Libyan question, to which Defense Online, on these pages, has devoted much space.
Al Serraj is a more nominal than a substantial leader. In fact it is hostage to Islamic and Islamist cartels (including the Muslim Brotherhood) that control much of Tripolitania and do not enjoy a charisma in the territory comparable to that of Haftar. Nevertheless, the West (Obama and Renzi, in his time went mad for him), considered him able to put together the pieces of the country, guaranteeing him a united future. The facts have shown the opposite, showing the failure of the European Union and the United Nations, to enter the funnel of Skhirat, the Moroccan city where the decree on Libyan unity was signed in December 2015.
The newspapers today speak triumphantly of the agreement between the two leaders, but in reality at this time the failure of Skhirat and the projects designed in Washington and Brussels in the 2011 are being sealed. Nothing more, nothing less. Al Serraj, however, is the only leader of Western Libya who, in addition to enjoying the coverage of the ever useful UN blessing, remains somewhat presentable, acting as a cork to the Islamist drift still possible in Tripolitania, especially in remote areas and in those close to of the borders with Tunisia and Algeria.
Already in mid-April, Trump's intention to organize a summit between Haftar and Al Serraj, recognized and also received by Moscow, had emerged from well-informed sources in Washington. The game, in practice, would look like this: the US broke away from Libya, but emerged as a great observer, giving the go-ahead for an agreement between the two main actors-enemies; Russia, holding contacts both with Tripoli and with Tobruk, directly sponsors the agreement by acting as arbitrator. On this last datum it must be remembered that the rapprochement of Turkey with Moscow, allowed to overcome the distrust of Egypt, an ally of Haftar but in bad relations with Ankara which in turn supports Tripoli.
What will happen then? In the immediate future there will be a race for those who will play the role of a good boy better. The clashes will diminish but will not end completely. For the 2018 the match between Haftar and Al Serraj will be the prelude to the emergence of a third figure. Haftar has 74 years and Al Serraj will soon have to pass the bank, because now burned in terms of leadership. The real future of Libya essentially does not belong to either one or the other.
Meanwhile, online defense sources speak of desperate 800.000 already crowded on the Libyan coast ready to set sail for the Italic coasts. Among humanitarian scandals and aligned press, weak and sly Italy continues to lengthen the list of its questionable political calculations.
We supported the war on Gaddafi first and then the role of Al Serraj. Two capital errors at once. Meanwhile, Libya's tomorrow belongs to others.
