Reportage Moldova: an almost unarmed state faces Russia

(To Giancarlo Palombi)
16/05/22

The Dnestr River cuts the Republic of Moldova in two. He was born in Ukraine, where they call him the lazy river. But here in Moldova, nobody uses the Russian name. For everyone it is Nistru.

In Criuleni, a village of just over a thousand souls a forty minute drive from the capital Chisinau, the Nistru appears even more silent and still. The first is located a few tens of meters from a bus stop assigned to the staff of the hydroelectric power station check point.

Until a few months ago, the Moldovans familiarized themselves with the soldiers of the "peacekeeping troops", today when the specter of a Russian advance seems to be real they hardly meet the eyes of the young soldiers.

The road that is normally traveled at high speed forces a sudden braking and slow changes of direction; on the run-down asphalt concrete blocks were placed to allow the cars to be inspected. On the edge of the aisle a BTR-70, a rotated troop transport vehicle, is stationary with the 14,5mm machine gun on display. The military appears to be on alert; the AK47 by most is not held over the shoulder, resting on the right shoulder. For a few days, the muzzle has been pointing towards the doors of passing cars with the index finger on the trigger guard.

“We know what war is. We have been living our Donbass since the early nineties. It is there, across the river. And it has a name: Transnistria ".

Iurie Leancă was Prime Minister from 2013 to 2015, before that he held the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs. His office is illuminated by two large windows overlooking the statue of Alexdr Pushkin. On the desk, a sculpture depicts a wild bull with a bear crown. "The bull is a symbolic animal of Moldova and the bear, that's Russia".

Leanca smiles, but the expression soon becomes a contracted grimace. “If the Russians were to take Odessa, Moldova would be in serious danger - explains - Transnistria has in fact been occupied by them since the day of our independence, in the south Gagauzia, a small province inhabited by Russian-speaking Turks, has repeatedly expressed its willingness to adhere to the Kremlin's plans. Moldova has no security umbrella, neither NATO nor Europe ".

There is regret in the words of the former premier. On the walls of his office are photos of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former US President Barack Obama. “Whenever we have carried out diplomatic missions in the European Parliament to propose the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the EU, we have always received reassurances but never concrete interventions. Unfortunately, some countries are perplexed. One above all is France ".

As large as Veneto and with just over 2 million inhabitants, Moldova has an economy based mainly on agriculture, a high unemployment rate and internal growth that is struggling to reach the standards of neighboring Romania. An uninteresting partner for the countries of the European Union.

“What would we do if the Russians were to enter Moldova? I would say that we would have a doubt of a Shakespearean nature: to be or not to be ". Iurie Leancă thinks above all of the armed forces. “We have an army of just 3000 units, outdated equipment not to mention the fleet. Aviation? A dozen aircraft, at least according to those in the inventories but I don't know how many of these are operational ".

The escalation of war in recent weeks seems to have had no impact on the Moldovan security system. The troops remain in the barracks and garrison of the small arsenals. It is the intellicenge that has passed into a higher state of operation. Agents monitor the passage of citizens along the four bridges that cross the Nistru River and lead to nearby Transnistria. They write down license plates, scan faces. Someone is arrested for "informal talks".

"It is forbidden to take photographs" warns a customs policeman at the Criuleni border. Shortly after the ban is motivated by an official of the SIS, the Serviciul de Informații și Securitate Moldovan reaching the customs crossing aboard an old Toyota SUV.

"Those on the other side are looking for a pretext for a clash, it has already happened in recent days with shots at a public building and with the explosion of a grenade next to a radio antenna". "Those" are the Russian FSB agents in Transnistria.

From the first days of April, the self-proclaimed independent republic of Moldova in the early 1500s has become one of the main listening points of the Russian secret service. The fear is that precisely in this small strip of land, where at least XNUMX Russian soldiers are present, a new front could open up. Many analysts believe that Putin's goal would be to create a corridor from the Donbass to the separatist region, completing the project of a 'New Russia' with an outlet to the Black Sea.

The enclave would therefore be a strategic location for a pincer operation on Odessa which is just 80 kilometers away. A front that, however, could have a domino effect: a Russian action in the region, not even recognized by Russia itself, would in fact mean a declaration of war against Moldova on which Romania, a NATO country strongly hostile to the Federation, has a strong influence. and that it is already amassing troops at the border. The situation would then become explosive, putting Moldova in extreme difficulty.

The country has always defined itself as neutral, making its position official also in the Constitution. A neutrality which is associated with the firm no to NATO and which brings together the government and the opposition.

"We are - says Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu - a neutral country. We do not take part in military conflicts, but we want to enter Europe ".

But the Russian bear's grip on Moldova may not necessarily be armed. The country is dependent for gas supplies from Russia. Electricity is supplied through two power stations, both of which are located in Transnistria. If the Kremlin wanted to, it could leave the whole nation dry.

Everyone in Chisinau is convinced of this: the Russians will arrive in Odessa. And Prime Minister Maia Sandu will find herself at a crossroads: invoke NATO intervention or make room for a puppet government in Moscow led by Igor Dodon, the pro-Russian leader who paraded in the Eterninate memorial with the ribbon of Saint George on 9 May. That he has started the path that could hand over the country to Putin.

Photo: author