Let's go back to the subject of the siege of Mariupol, which we had even dealt with three weeks ago (see article): then we did it by analyzing the importance of the resistance of the first Ukrainian port, this time we will try to understand why everyone was wrong for twenty days they repeated to us like a mantra: “but the fall of Mariupol is imminent”.
Let's start from a fixed point: despite the fact that almost three weeks have passed since our article and despite the fact that the news reports every day news of attacks and massacres, the city of Maria - this means her name - has not yet fallen. The news of Russian vehicles and troops in the city center does not tell the whole story: in the midst of the rubble, like the "ratmen" of Stalingrad, thousands of fighters still prowl with enough drones, anti-tank weapons and artillery to transform every attempt at " to clean up ”the city of its defenders a challenge with death.
The presence of hundreds of thousands of civilians, the exceptional amount of weapons available to the defenders, their high level of training and the extent of the surface that they can take - and keep - control of, put a strain on the besiegers ratio. necessary to win it over a city under siege: Moscow, despite having deployed a force three times higher, seems to turn and turn its forces among industrial plants, gutted buildings and collapsed walls.
It is likely that in the coming weeks we will see the number of Russians working on this front double or triple, with the aim of crushing the resisters in Mariupol before the arrival of Ukrainian tanks and troops from the west and north of Ukraine.
We also consider that, despite the Russian artillery and missiles massively hitting civilians, the Ukrainian defenders of the 10th assault brigade of the ground forces, the 36th brigade of the naval infantry, the 12th brigade of the national guard and territorial defense forces, in all fewer than four thousand fighters. Add to these a thousand members of the infamous Azov battalion.
On the other hand, we find the Russian invasion troops, about 14.000 men from the Russian ground forces, air force and navy, about 14, also including aid from the Donbass militias and kadirovites, Islamist warriors of the controversial Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.
The insistence on moving local women and children to the East but also the de facto refusal to let civilians out testify to a double Russian approach of a traditional, almost ancient type: to push husbands and fathers to lay down their arms for the safety of their families, but also leave the city full of mouths to feed, hoping to cause problems in the distribution of food and, ultimately, the surrender of the city to a popular revolt for hunger. Whether this will work is debatable, even considering that the population is spread over a vast area, more busy avoiding being overthrown by the invaders than organizing rebellions against the defenders.
Defenders who die in large numbers, but probably fewer than the attackers. The massacre of senior officers testifies to the enormous difficulties encountered by the Russian forces: Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, deputy chief of the 41st Army, was killed during the invasion on February 28, while Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, first deputy commander of the 41 Army, was killed on 7 March and Major General Oleg Mityaev of the 151st Rifle Division was killed on 15 March, Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet Andrei Nikolayevich Paliy was killed on 20 March, just days before the Colonel of the Marines of the 510th Brigade Alexei Sharov.
A carnage of officers of this size in less than a month and in a smaller territory of the Aosta Valley is unprecedented in Russian history since the time of Ivan IV the Terrible. The anger of the Azov battalion's Telegram channel speaks volumes about the fierce determination of resisters who know they have no way out: "(The Russians) have burned, destroyed, plundered ... This deserves death and no forgiveness". We don't even talk about negotiations in Mariupol ...
In short, the siege of Mariupol - like the war - continues.
Photo: gov.ua
