Libya: the war at the gates

(To Gino Lanzara)
10/02/22

Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, escaped an attack a few hours ago; the assailants, after targeting the prime minister's car, fled, leaving him unharmed; an episode that rises to the (final?) outcome of a convulsive period that saw a vehement dispute between various political and military formations for the control of the executive.

If the assassination attempt is confirmed, it could only aggravate the ongoing crisis, which once again sees control of Libya in the balance, after Dbeibah said he will not take into account the vote scheduled shortly in the Parliament of Tobruk intended to open a new phase of crisis with its defenestration. Furthermore, the next moves by the armed forces that have been mobilizing men and equipment in Tripoli for a few weeks already, legitimizing palpable fears about a political crisis heralding new armed clashes, should also be considered.

Today's events are the inevitable counterpart to an evolution of events that has become uncontrollable: if it is true that Dbeibah had been installed as prime minister in time of a government of national unity with the support of the UN, with the aim of unifying the institutions of a torn country, preparing it for a transition to be closed with regular elections, it is equally true that the various factions have continued to fight to retain their positions of power especially after the electoral process has been shattered amid regulatory disputes such as the unexpected candidacy of Dbeibah himself, or the return to the political scene of controversial and prominent figures such as Saif al Islam Gaddafi.

Parliament, the usual support of the forces of the East during the civil war, did not recognize the legitimacy of the government, and in a few hours it will vote to appoint a new prime minister to head another executive.

Dbeibah, a few days ago, declared that he would give up power only after a regular electoral process, on the strength of the support he is continuing to receive from the UN adviser for Libya and from the main Western countries, which continue to recognize his government.

Meanwhile, the parliament announced a few days ago that there will be no elections this year, determination achieved with the approval of a series of constitutional changes that have definitively thrown the country into chaos.

Parliamentary policy aimed at appointing a new premier seems clearly intended to bring the situation back to status quo ante the settlement of the Dbeibah government, with parallel state entities ruling Libya in anarchy from different cities.

At the moment, no elements are reported that would suggest a possible repeated outbreak of the civil war, but certainly the underestimation of the risk and the inability of local and foreign security services to prevent the assassination attempt does not bode well.

Photo: Twitter