Kazakhstan: technical instability tests

(To Gino Lanzara)

A probable new Maidan is taking place in Kazakhstan. The violent protests that broke out a few days ago were directed against the sudden and high rise in the price of gas. But it is not excluded that it may be a pretext for staging a new Maidan.

In a fluid context like this, the military and the National Guard are naturally forced to a more mild intervention if not to surrender, given that if they fired on the crowd an altered situation would take shape and not in line with the actual events.

There are also shortcomings and failures of the police forces deployed, which in some cases are even passed, with several soldiers, among the ranks of the insurgents.

Meanwhile, some demonstrators have come into possession of National Guard military equipment, while the Internet is completely blocked. Russian aircraft, including a Russian strategic cargo Il-76, have landed in Almaty.

Are we facing a new Ukraine? Likely, but Moscow will certainly be careful not to stay on the losing side of the table again. In Belarus last year he averted a new colorful revolt thanks to local intelligence coordinated with the Russian FSB / Gru. The Kazakh situation is more difficult and complex given the country's multi-ethnicity and multiculturalism. A decisive intervention by the Kremlin cannot be excluded, aimed at avoiding worse and uncontrollable situations.

NATO and the USA?

Western interest appears to be aimed at keeping Russia busy on another front. At the moment, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan has stated that Russia, at the request of Kazakh President Tokajev, is intervening in Kazakhstan with "peacekeeping forces", operating under the collective security treaty, CSTO. Recall that the CSTO is a military alliance that includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and especially Russia.

Unconfirmed news from "Nastojashcheje Vremja", report that Russia is already sending military personnel to Kazakhstan, to the point of mentioning the preparation of a special troop transport aircraft at a military airport near Orenburg, no more than 160 km from the Kazakh border. ; to this could be added the11a engineers brigade stationed in the city of Kamensk-Shakhtinsky.

With the arrival of the CSTO forces, Kazakhstan could bid farewell to its independence, with an intervention that recalls the one in Belarus. The involvement of the CSTO will make it possible to make the borders impermeable. It is likely that with the southern borders controlled, with internet and mobile phones blocked, population at home, it will become easier to hunt down possible foreign agents who, if they intend to keep the revolt alive, will have to expose themselves directly.

For Moscow, having heads to show at the mid-January OSCE negotiations could be crucial, given that all CSTO states belong to the OSCE.

For Italy it could be an energy disaster given Eni's ties with Kazakhstan.