Bangladesh returns to the international scene: after weeks of protests animated by the Students against discrimination, Prime Minister Sheick Hasina fled Dakka and left the country. The ongoing riots are probably some of the most violent ever to have occurred. The causes are multiple, they have internal relevance but also have connotations relating to foreign policy.
At the basis of the riots, protests against the system of pro quota hiring aimed at favoring the families of fighters in the war of independence from Pakistan 50 years ago, an anachronistic but nepotistically understandable policy which, however, did not take into account the progress of the country .
Since 1972, 30 percent of the coveted government job positions, as mentioned, have been reserved for the descendants of the so-called freedom fighters, while other positions are assigned on a percentage basis, with valid justification, to other groups for no less than 56% of the available positions (ethnic minorities, women, disabled people, individuals from under-represented districts). Not without foundation, the protesters believe the system is discriminatory and that it should vary according to merit, a multi-latitude issue. The clashes were particularly violent and claimed several hundred victims, especially when the demonstrators came into contact with the police and the opposing faction.
Although the country has enjoyed good economic progress, Bangladesh remains one of the least developed political entities in the world: the post-pandemic phase saw a sharp deceleration in GDP growth; in 2023, according to the World Bank, real growth in 2023 fell to 5,8% compared to 7,1 in 2022. Public employment is more stable and better paid than private employment; according to Bloomberg, over 400.000 graduates compete for no more than 3.000 job positions per year.
Protesters believe that the pro-quota system favored Prime Minister Hasina, as the ruling party, theAwami League, rode the country's push for independence. The suspension of the system by the Supreme Court did not prevent the explosion of discontent, while Hasina defended the system, the bearer of strong and indispensable support for the ruling party. The promise to establish an investigative commission did not calm things down, but rather exacerbated them further. In fact there was no way to even get the parties involved to talk with, in the background, the complete paralysis of the country. the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party supports the protesters' demands.
In fact, the violent government repression was not enough, just as it was not enough to limit or interrupt internet services, associated with a strict curfew.
Hasina, uninterruptedly in power from 1996 to 2001 and then as Bangladesh's longest-serving head of government since 2009, has favored an increasingly authoritarian political turn over time. She was the eldest daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who declared independence from Pakistan in 1971. She inherited his legacy after the bloody coup in which her parents were killed. Coups d'état followed one another, bringing Ziaur Rahman to power, deposed in 1981, who abolished the secular nature of the state and made Islamic loyalty one of the key constitutional principles. Hasina therefore entered into bitter competition with Khaleda Zia, the BNP leader and Rahman's wife, with whom she governed on and off.
Instability and violence have characterized the political life of Bangladesh up to the present day, with increasingly accentuated suspicions about the regularity of the electoral results. The internal progress brought about by development has allowed the equalization of female education, with a simultaneous improvement in working conditions. Hasina has maintained good relations with both India and China, cultivating ties with both Russia and Western countries. However, democracy paid the price, with repression and limitation of dissent and freedom of the press. The UN recently reported that the use of the judiciary as a weapon was decreasing the independence of the judiciary.
The script of the day is the classic one: collapse of the resistance to avoid a bloody civil war, flight of the leadership, assumption of government responsibilities by the Armed Forces, with General Waker Uz Zaman, at his debut as head of the Army. And hundreds of questions about the aftermath, given that power vacuums are not allowed in international relations.
It goes without saying that the psychological effect of the crowd entering the buildings of power does not solve the actual problems, which all remain clearly visible, also in light of the extent of the number of victims that could have been spared. As Hasina's C-130 plane AJAX1431 landed at the Indian air base of Hindon, General Zaman wisely announced his intention to consult the president on the formation of an interim government, with the aim of returning to normality as soon as possible. Then, he will fly near London after a stay in India. For Hasina, perhaps, the next stop could be London, although there is no certainty on the matter.
New Delhi has not yet officially reacted to the developments, although it has monitored them carefully and maintained a maximum alert along the border. Before fleeing, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, Hasina's son and a US resident, had asked the security forces to save the government.
Chinese position to be examined. Beijing openly and immediately sided with Hasina, with whom it signed several significant commercial agreements, including the free trade agreement with the collateral establishment of a direct Beijing - Dacca flight. It should not be forgotten that Bangladesh occupies a strategic position between Myanmar, an ally of the Dragon and now affected by internal conflicts, and India, in long-standing competition with Beijing. All while trying to keep the partnerships with the USA and India active. Faced with Bangladesh's debt, China should continue to guarantee negotiated investments, while Washington remains the main source of investment.
Frame: RAI
