Afghanistan: the infinite game

(To Daniela Lombardi)
11/09/17

The goal, judging by the instability conditions that occur in Afghanistan in this 2017, seems far from being centered. Yet NATO - through the mission Resolute support support for the Afghan armed forces - US President Trump and Afghan Ghani believe they can do it in about four years. Up to the 2020, thanks to a set of tools put in place, the attempt will be to keep the government around the 80% of the population. A population that has to deal daily with the approximately 20 terrorist groups that contend the territory between Afghanistan and Pakistan trying to scatter them. Among them, the most fearsome and dangerous remain the Taliban and the Wilayat Khorasan, recognized branch of ISIS in Afghanistan.

On the indicators that make suppose the mission Resolute support it will last until at least 2020, although it is to be imagined that the times will be further lengthened, clarifies the Italian deputy commander of the same mission, the general of the army corps Rosario Castellano: "There are three parameters that indicate that we will not leave Afghanistan up to 2020 or beyond. The first is given by the Brussels meeting which took place in October last year, during which $ 15,2 billions of dollars, spread over four years, were allocated to ensure the stabilization of Afghanistan".

Two more fundamental data come from recent decisions taken by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and statements by US President Donald Trump. Ghani has recently approved a "road map plan" with which it intends to win the trust and support of the population, pushing it to move away and openly oppose terrorist movements. Currently, according to government estimates, beyond the 60% of Afghans want stability and stability, and believes that, to assure them, it may be the official government.

Different and opposite are, of course, the conclusions of the insurgents (meaning this term mainly the Taliban) who believe they have on their side the same percentage that Ghani declares to be "his".

By leaving the influence on the statements of fears, fears of retaliation and so many other kinds of considerations, the government feels ready to reach the desired goal. "The idea is to pass the percentage of the current 63 percent to 80% in terms of government support from the population. In these four years Ghani then plans, together with NATO, a growth of the Afghan armed forces and a growth of its government, social and economic fabric". Purpose, the latter, to whom the mission is destined Resolute support that in the 2015 replaced the previous mission Isaf, with the task of assuring the training of Afghan forces by improving their ability to counteract terrorist phenomena and tackle Taliban and ISIS threats.

In short, NATO's farewell to Afghanistan appears far away, because, as confirmed by General Castellano, Trump has included Resolute Support among the "condition based" missions. To explain what this involves, in military terms, is always the general. "In military terms a mission can be subjected to precise or precisely defined timeframes, or conditionally based. That is when certain conditions occur you can end the mission". In practice, if Afghanistan has not achieved the ability to autonomously combat the threat in the 2020, NATO will still remain.

Anyone who had created the unlikely slogan "Goodbye Afghanistan" will have to look for another, more appropriate to the real situation.