Propaganda and war games between Russia and Ukraine. With the world to watch.

"Writing a piece that shows the propaganda of both parties, Kiev and Moscow, without taking a position" is the task with which I am going to work, while I sit at the Vienna airport, in one of those nineteen-style rubber stations for business travelers who make it so convenient for medium-term stopovers.

I read a little bit of Russian propaganda and I find out that:

- The Ukrainian naval forces had repeatedly attempted "provocative" maneuvers in violation of the territorial waters of the Russian Federation;

- In particular, the mission of three naval units in Kiev was aimed at causing the reaction of the coast guard and security services, the FSB;

- Subjected to questioning, some of the men on board confirmed to have executed precise orders of the Ukrainian Government;

- In this regard, handwritten documents and letterheads confirm the intention of Ukrainian leaders to lure Russia into a trap;

- Kiev's goal is to trigger a crisis that serves President Petro Poroshenko to regain consensus, given that the polls four months after the vote give him as second, third or fourth choice of Ukrainian voters;

- Through the establishment of martial law, Poroshenko himself aims to influence or even cancel the elections for the next 31 in March.

The position of the Russian Government can be summarized in the words of President Vladimir Putin:

This is a provocation orchestrated by the Ukrainian government on the eve of the presidential elections of March. The current president is likely not to go to the second round and therefore thinks to exacerbate the situation by creating obstacles for opposition candidates ... (in recent years) Ukraine had more serious reasons to impose martial law in the country, when in the 2014 the Crimea decided to join Russia, or later, when the conflict broke out in the Donbass: there was a war but no martial law was introduced ".¹

I read a little bit of propaganda from the Ukrainian side and I find out that:

- The Russian naval forces and the FSB have for months been conducting asphyxiating controls on commercial shipping in the Azov Sea and in the Kerch Strait;

- The mission of three naval units of Kiev had been reported to the competent Russian authorities;

- The "interrogations" and "investigations" of the FSB have extracted confessions under blackmail and produced false documents;

- In this regard, it is clear that Moscow intends to make it impossible to carry out navigation in the waters of the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait, in violation of the 2003 agreements;

- The Parliament granted only one month of application of the martial law to President Poroshenko: this only serves to facilitate the movement of men and military means in some provinces without having to run into internal bureaucracy every now and then;

- The elections are confirmed: in Western countries like Italy the election campaign lasts for 60 days, not 120.

To understand the Ukrainian position, we give the floor to the Institute for Studies on the Black Sea:

"Since last April about 730 Ukrainian ships or flying foreign flags departing or arriving from Mariupol and Berdiansk have been stopped and slowed down by Russian coastguards for periods between 8 hours and 4 days. These are completely arbitrary actions conducted by the FSB agents (the Russian secret service). Some ships have been slowed down several times on the same trip. This causes a serious damage to our economy. 40 percent of our exports pass through our ports on the Sea of ​​Azov, especially wheat and steel. In addition there was the construction of the Russian bridge connecting the Crimean peninsula to mainland Russia via the Kerch Strait. A long work 18 kilometers and high only 35 meters, under which large cargo ships can not transit. Half of our fleet can no longer pass in those waters".²

Yes, in fact, what the media is reporting is almost all propaganda and it is very difficult to separate facts from disinformation. To say, we do not even know if the FSO sailors and officers in the hands of the FSO are 12, 18 or 23: the sources are discordant. The European citizen does not even care about these things: if he is pro-West, he already knows that the head of the bad guys is in Moscow ... if it is pro-Putin, the Ukrainians and the Westerners have never stopped besieging the great Russian nation ... if not nothing matters to him, he is part of the vast silent majority.

Does it really make sense to write an article like this, just on propaganda? No! I therefore limit myself to listing some facts:

• It seems evident that there is an attempt by the Kremlin to impose Russian naval hegemony on the Sea of ​​Azov and on the Kerch Strait. For pro-Russian propaganda, it is a necessity, not a fact to hide.

• All commentators agree that there was an attempt by the Ukrainian president to impose martial law for a period that was large enough to influence the 31 March political elections, but failed because he did not have a sufficient parliamentary majority .

• For what the writer knows, nobody has made known the satellite images of what happened: they would have been useful to highlight if the culprit is one of the two government or bad luck. Russia did not do it, although it has a monitoring system, nor did NATO for now, which does not want to feed the conflict.

• If of provocative violation of the Russian territorial waters in Crimea it was, for international law the provocation and the violation are only in the eyes of the Russian Federation and its allies, as the annexation of Crimea to the Russian Federation is recognized only by Afghanistan , Cuba, North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Nicaragua, Sudan, Syria and Zimbabwe. For all the others, very simply it is not about Russian territorial waters³.

• We are facing a conflict that has lasted for just over four years and has caused 10.500 dead (including a quarter civilian), almost 25.000 among wounded and mutilated, 1,7 millions of refugees who from the Crimean, Donesk and Luhansk regions have spilled in Ukraine and 900.000 abroad.

It is conceivable, as no one openly says, a direct conflict between Ukrainian and Russian forces? Unfortunately. Any episode could constitute the casus belli. The mutual accusations of having carried out political assassinations, of having violated the territory of the other and of threatening the counterpart's strategic interests are on the agenda.

With what consequences? We can only have fun drawing scenarios, since we do not know what the crisis will start from and therefore in which direction it will evolve. We only know that sooner or later you could trigger ...

There is one demential scenario of the Russian occupation of the whole of Ukraine. I only say that it would require two thirds of the Russian forces and probably military, political and economic losses that would irreparably compromise the strength of the current Russian leadership.

There is one scenario of the "Russian dream" of awakening the goal of the 2014 to induce militarily in the oblasts (provinces, regions) of Karkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizia, Kherson, Mykolayiv and Odessa to follow in the footsteps of the Crimea. In this scenario, after being retreated under the devastating blows of the Russians, the Ukrainian forces are perched in defense of Kiev and the "Western Fortress".

There is one stress test scenario on Russia: in fact, the Ukrainian armed forces of 2018 are neither the irregular ones of the Islamic State, nor the modest ones of Georgia, let alone those Ukrainian - nonexistent - of the 2014. It is easy to imagine that the United States and the United Kingdom would have no qualms about supplying Kiev with modern equipment in a massive way. In short, in this scenario, Moscow has a demonstration of its capabilities - or not - in the military, technological and strategic world-wide, in a country with a good number of potential nuclear power plants, victims of errors of targeting. Is it worth it?

In any case, it is likely that such a conflict would determine, in Washington and London more than in Brussels, Paris and Berlin, the need to define, once and for all, the eastern limes of the West and where the Russian hegemonic area begins, with consequences also in the Baltic-Scandinavian region.

From the Italians, just expect them to sit and watch who wins to bring them in triumph.

Here, my plane is about to leave. Closing the computer, I envy the Ukrainian nationalists, the Putin wire, the atlantists and the anti-Westerns: on this case, they have certain ideas and see the world in black and white. The Ukrainian crisis, with all its potential for death and ruin, has a simple interpretation for them. After all, stuffing the propaganda drug helps not to think. Because if you think about it, this crisis puts the chills.