Dark shadows over the future of the Caucasus

(To Andrea Gaspardo)

While the whole world's attention is focused on the evolution of the Russo-Ukrainian War, a hitherto beautifully ignored crisis is taking place in the lands of the Caucasus which, if it were to end in the worst way, would risk exposing once and for all so much the carelessness of the West in dealing with this type of conflict as much as the plasticity of the often trumpeted "universal values" of the same; especially in this case in which one of the contenders is flanked (I deliberately use this term of "mafia" allusion because this is what it is about) by a country which is formally part of NATO but which has been working for years to create an area of ​​hegemony which is completely in antithesis with Italy's most basic national interests.

I have written it countless times and I will never stop doing it: we are talking about Turkey. As I said earlier, we are in the Caucasus and the scenario is that of the still unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which in the meantime has effectively extended to the entire territory of the Republic of Armenia which, under joint Turkish-Azerbaijani pressure, risks to disappear from the geographical map (and given the historical past of just over a century ago, this has the high probability of turning into a second Genocide for the Armenian people).

As of December 12, 2022, the residual part of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh (also known as the “Republic of Artsakh”) not yet re-occupied by Azerbaijan as a result of the 2020 war and subsequent Russian-sponsored armistice agreements , is subjected to a sort of "siege" by masses of Azeri demonstrators who have blocked the only existing connection road between it and Armenia proper.

Officially the demonstrations were described by the Azerbaijani regime press as "ecological", however it is very curious that the organizers chose the Lachin corridor as the stage to stage their protests and not the Absheron peninsula which, after more than a century of History of the local oil industry has been deeply marked by chemical pollution.

Needless to say, the malignant ones are right to believe that the Baku authorities are behind this "hybrid war" maneuver who, with clever cunning, use the so-called "protesters" to keep the pressure up both against the Nagorno Armenians ( some 120.000 souls remained in their ancestral territories despite the threat of annihilation by the Azerbaijani authorities).

Singular the fact that Turkey has wasted no time in demonstrating its total closeness to the demonstrators and to the Azeri state. Singular choice for an "ecological demonstration" which only further accredits the suspicions of those who believe that everything represents nothing more than yet another prank piloted by the "satrap" of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev.

Once again, the autocrat of Baku is proving to be an excellent opportunist in organizing piloted geopolitical crises for his exclusive use and consumption while the world is distracted by other more or less serious emergencies and can allocate only the " residue" of energies. This is the case especially for Russia, de facto the only "military protector" of Armenia, which is currently unable to intervene in the Caucasian area because it is forced to concentrate all its efforts in Ukraine. Not to mention the various Western countries (sadly Italy included) which have all preferred to take a substantially pro-Azerbaijani position by sacrificing those "inalienable Western values" that are so much heralded when it comes to talking about Ukraine and then beautifully ignored when it suits

 The effrontery of the Azeris and their Turkish supporters is also sadly facilitated by the fact that, still shocked by the military defeat of 2020, the Armenian state is still struggling to formulate a new containment strategy worthy of the name while any attempt at reform (at this desperately needed point!) of the Armenian Armed Forces has been systematically torpedoed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan himself who for years seems more committed to stubbornly preserving his power than to protecting his country and his people from the dark clouds that are looming above the peaks of the Caucasus and do not give a glimpse of anything good for the next few years.


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