May 2017, Presidential Elections in Iran. The Middle East (and not only) with the breath suspended

(To Daniela Lombardi)
24/04/17

It is a fundamental piece to understand what will become of the geopolitical equilibria (or imbalances) in the Middle East. The 19 next May, the date set for the presidential elections in Iran, it will be essential to know who will come out victorious from the polls, especially following the statements of US President Donald Trump, who leaked his intention to review the Iranian nuclear agreements.

The outgoing president of Iran, Hassan Rohani, who hopes to be reconfirmed, has made the agreements taken from America on the nuclear war with his electoral campaign. Negotiations with the United States have in fact allowed the lifting of some of the sanctions imposed by the international community in Tehran. According to them, Iran has pledged to limit the nuclear program to the civil sector and not to equip itself with nuclear weapons.

Since the agreement has given more stability to the country and greater credibility in the international context, Rohani is considered by a considerable part of public opinion to be a president capable of giving new impetus to the entire economic system, a subject very much felt in this historical period.

The fear of the big banks over Washington's maneuvering in the Middle East scenario weighs on the balance in the field of economics and finance; this skepticism has so far slowed down the recovery. All of Rohani's successes could essentially be thwarted by Trump's statements right next to the presidential elections, putting a big unknown on his confirmation. A competitor who fully enjoys the support of the supreme leader Khamenei and who poses aggressively in the election campaign, could take advantage of it.

We are talking about Ebrahim Raisi, who took the field at the last moment but was able to shoot the cards and create a lot of unease on Rohani's staff. For the Iranian people, Raisi is the hardest expression of the regime. In his role as Tehran's public prosecutor, he stood out for easy death sentences and mass executions. He was part of the infamous "Death Commission", accused of the 1988 massacre of 30mila opponents of the regime. On the other hand, for his methods, he was rewarded by Khamenei with important positions in the judiciary.

THEayatollah did not hesitate to put him in charge of theAstan Quds Razavi, a powerful economic foundation often suspected of financing so-called terrorist organizations.

The same Khamenei, attentive to the historical moment that Persia wants again in the elite of the nations that count, has instead "burned" the already controversial candidacy of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who therefore will not be running for the next 19 in May.

That the former Iranian president, in office from the 2005 to the 2013, had no hope of recurring, had appeared clear from the start of the presidential competition. Ayatollah Khamenei himself had asked him not to come forward.

Il Council of the Guardians of the Revolution, half appointed by the Iranian supreme leader himself, could only follow his instructions, ousting Ahmadinejad. The name of the former president and his anti-Western positions were not convenient in this historical phase even to the conservatives, who feared to suffer more damage than advantages from the approach to the leader known for his extremism. Ahmadinejad has in fact split the traditionalist camp; only the ultraconservatives remained to support him, while some of his loyalists even accused him of blasphemy for having contravened Khamenei's advice. Excluding Ahmadinejad from the scenario and considering the growing weight of Raisi, candidate Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf is considered not as competitive, who in the 2013 challenge, won by Rohani, was placed second.

Qalibaf is the current mayor of Tehran, but has encountered obstacles to a corruption affair that would see him involved. The Municipality would in fact have sold some land in a residential area to private individuals at half the market price. Also for this reason, the mayor had made it clear that he would retire from the race, thinking back on it later.

The list of candidates, which also includes Mostafa Aqa-Mirsalim, vice president during the presidency of Rafsanjani and Khatami, Mostafa Hashemi-Taba, minister of culture in the Rafsanjani period and the current vice president Eshaq Jahangiri, will be made official on April 27 . Immediately after, an electoral campaign will start which is expected to be no holds barred.

Trump's steps in the nuclear deal will be very influential in identifying the future Iranian president. The Middle East (and beyond) remains in suspense.

 (photo: web)