As part of the regular annual assessment of the economies of developing countries, the international bank Standard Chartered he recently published a report on the Russian economy. The results of this document, appropriately compared with those of other credit institutions and with the estimates recently released by the International Monetary Fund at the beginning of February 2019 can contribute to shedding new light on the economic situation of Russia five years after the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine and from the introduction of economic sanctions.
Despite the sanctions applied by the United States, Canada, the European Union and Japan have caused damage to Russia equal to 6% of GDP (PPP) to 2018 data, the Russian Federation's economy has proved sufficiently resilient to absorb the shock. In the 2014, for example, the Russian economy has grown only by + 0,7% while in the 2015 and 2016 the GDP (PPA) has even suffered a contraction respectively of -2,5% and -0,2%. The growth was again positive in 2017, with + 1,5% and continued in 2018 with + 2,3%. A slight increase was also recorded in real wages, while both inflation and unemployment declined, respectively at 2,5% and 4,5% respectively.
According to analysts of Standard Chartered it is therefore doubtful to talk about the "success" of the sanctions. Not only that, the moderately positive trend of the Muscovite economy, combined with the slowing down of the German economy, at the end of the 2018 to a skinny + 1,5% (the lowest value from the 2013) now leaves a glimpse of the scenario that will establish in the 2020 an exceeding of Germany by Russia. In this way a geopolitical and geoeconomic cycle will be concluded; at the time of its disintegration, in the 1991, the Soviet Union was the second world economic power and held the first position of economic power on the European continent.
The fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of Communism and the disintegration of the USSR itself, have delivered for about 30 years a continental reality in which unified Germany has once again found itself to play a hegemonic role. The euro and the process of enlargement of the European Union were not even veiled by the renewed Teutonic power. However, to paraphrase the Shanghai essays: "no meal under this heaven is infinite"; in addition to being back in the great geopolitical game, now Russia definitely aims to access the "club" of the five major world economies and economic success also involves the acquisition of important political "levers".
But we must not believe that everything that glitters is gold. Because of the damage caused by the sanctions, about 20 millions of Russians (13% of the total population) live below the poverty line while the average monthly nominal wages are still below 450 dollars, a lower threshold than the 2014. Not only; the recent reforms of the pension system (with a rise in the retirement age, especially for men) and the introduction of a new tax system, especially for businesses, have proved extremely unpopular with the Russians, contributing for the first time the beginning of the 2000 years to crack confidence in the Kremlin tenant.
The same expectations for the economy vary considerably in the world of Russian entrepreneurship. On 1400 managers of large and small companies, operating in the manufacturing and service sectors, consulted during a 2018 survey, only 4% described the situation as "good" while the absolute majority called it "catastrophic" ". It thus emerges that the Russian economy, although resilient to crises, is still far from being called "a success".
Photo: Kremlin
