The race of North Korea towards the consolidation of its nuclear capacity and of the systems to bring it on the military and civil targets has reached an important goal that is certainly not canceled by the United Nations Security Council meeting, called urgently to analyze the increasingly explosive situation in the Asian area between the two Koreas, Japan, China and the US bases in the Pacific.
We must however consider with realism the level of danger: Hawdong 15 it seems to have surpassed the 4000 kilometers and has fallen, according to the statement of the Japanese defense minister, to the west of the northern Japanese peninsular coasts.
But in such a complex situation it is imperative to understand first and foremost who has verified that the triumphal declarations of the North Korean state media correspond to reality. The first to launch the alarm, incidentally, was an American institution until now very little known in the news, which has been operating since the 60 years on the front of the prevention of nuclear accidents. It is about Union of Concerned Scientists, an American association born in 1969 within the MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) against the use of new technologies for war purposes and their application to the improvement of social and economic conditions of citizens.
Some questions arise spontaneously: how did this association confirm after a few hours that the North Korean regime had really reached the difficult goal of making the missile run a trajectory of 53 minutes, to the point that Kim is now able to attack even Washington? Did this union of scientists have satellites that monitored the launch? Is it in possession of data, or incontrovertible evidence that the North-Western statements are undoubtedly true? Has - something that even the CIA has failed to do - an agent infiltrated in the magic circle of Kim Strangelove?
However, beyond all the more or less truthful rumors that have followed one another, it should be emphasized that between the impressive performance and the fact of being able to hit the capital of the United States with a nuclear device carried by a missile, it passes a beautiful difference and, at the moment, this remains a very long step to be taken.
That Washington is in check would therefore seem more a statement in support of an American hard line, than that of a group of neutral and worried scholars.
However, the fact remains that the race towards the growth of its missile arsenal of ever greater range and the expansion of its nuclear capacity by North Korea has become unstoppable.
What can be deduced from what happened? The feeling is that China had probably managed to stop Kim for a couple of months, but the US approach has not changed and has not given any value to the thin Chinese strategies to contain it. So the real tug of war is once again between China and the United States.
North Korea, aware that it is a race against time, seems to follow the Siamese twins theorem in its time enunciated by the French general André Beaufre, or that the possible conventional attack (the US landing) is not accomplished by a stronger enemy if you have a nuclear deterrent.
Kim, who studied General Beaufre at the Strategic Studies Course in Switzerland, has further confirmed from his theories that the real danger that Korea still runs today, despite everything, is the attack CONVENTIONAL, to which his regime certainly would not survive.
China wants to appear not too directly involved, Russia has for the time being hidden. Kim, following the strategic line of the Siamese twins, will instead continue to run to acquire ever greater deterrence, thus forcing the United States to pursue the hypothesis of armed intervention in order not to appear weak in the eyes of the world public opinion.
Prof. Arduino Paniccia
President of ASCE School of International Economic Competition of Venice and Lecturer of Strategic Studies
(photo: KCNA)
