Iran: signs of war from the Gulf

(To Vito Civitano)

Significant military interventions in geopolitical areas such as North Korea, Libya, Yemen or Venezuela were not achieved in the two and a half years of the Trump administration. In a certain sense, even Syria, like all these countries, has been subjected to both the diplomatic and the economic weapon rather than being a military target of star-striped politics. The case of Iran is similar, subject to very strong pressures. In recent times even in Iran we are witnessing an incredible change of gear, dictated by the failure of policies aimed at dialogue as well as the use of "soft power".

With a political agenda dictated by an apocalyptic political-religious message, always in violent conflict with the State of Israel, it was the appointment of General Salami, head of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, to cause some concerns in the international arena. Iranian. Class 1960, comes from the twenty-fifth division of Karbala, and from the fourteenth Hossein, University of the Command and the General Staff, with a training background on Defense management.

The Iranian ideology and leadership remain firmly convinced of the need to physically destroy the antagonist Israel, as repeatedly claimed by Ayatollah Khamenei, even at the crucial moment when the Trump administration has resumed sanctions. This is a return to the expected and predictable comparison: consider, for example, that Italy, according to press sources, did not buy more oil already, from 5 months from Iran, precisely following the hypothesis of sanctions.

What does America want from Iran? Two things: the end of long-range ballistic missile tests and tests on the atomic development of technologies dual use advanced. The sanctions have been used by the Trump administration as a double-edged sword, aimed on the one hand at hitting Iranian crude but also as a deterrent for nations aligned with the country, especially countries like China, Iran's main trading partner.

From many sources the hypothesis is given for certain that Iran intends to use all its oil sources to supply the Chinese, thus giving priority to the Beijing market, strengthening its axis with the Celestial empire. And it was precisely this axis that was the political and economic target to hit for the Trump administration, especially specifically, about importing Iranian energy resources. The objective, therefore, is twofold: to slow down the expansion of the Asian country, also touching on the Chinese trade balance. Indeed, China imports the 10 from Iran for its own energy needs.

Iran, however, with the election of the new commander of the Revolutionary Guards, as already mentioned, opens a new door to the reaction of the Israeli-American axis, just when the sanctions have been withdrawn, and it does so with the question of the Strait of Hormuz, strategic for Chinese supplies.

It is sounded just like a first threat of war, among other things, the feared use of ground troops "ready to inflict devastating damage on enemies" (General Salami). This could trigger a conflict of regional dimensions that would also involve Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Syria.

The fact of being able to use the Syrian theater in order to attack Israel is the great advantage and the real novelty because Iran has always had to deal with a distance of 3500 km between its borders and Israel. Now, instead, he is in direct contact through the Iranian presence in Syria. In reality, there was an Iranian military action when an Iranian unit from Syrian territory launched a missile in the territory of Israel. This is despite an agreement that the Israelis are staying at 35 km from the Israeli border and that this distance is manned by the Russians. It is easy to assume that Moscow has left the Iranians free, at least on this occasion.

Currently Iran is divided into two groups, the laity and the religious, the current president Rouhani is certainly not a moderate: he is also a Shiite fundamentalist and sees in the union between state and religion the way for the redemption of humanity. It has also gathered allies outside Iran, especially in those Sunni countries, Qatar and Turkey, which see, as Sunnis, the union between Islam and the State as the only remedy for modern decadence.

Photo: US Navy / IRNA