Trump's Return: America Divided Between Revenge and Global Challenges

(To Gino Lanzara)
19/01/25

A few hours separate The Donald from his second enthronement. The term is very obsolete, but it is absolutely fitting to the image of what many, rightly or wrongly, have identified as man of the year, who, to a large extent, came close to lengthening the list of politicians destined to pass away prematurely.

He will not have an easy (political) life given that two-thirds of his compatriots believe that the US is on a rocky path and that the economy is in good condition, at the very least. not good. Trust in the executive branch has decreased from 40% in 2000 to 20% today; after all, which politician can claim to be free from defects and, more or less large, faults?

The weakening of patriotism is coupled with a strong polarization of Congress; many American scholars draw parallels between the Land of Manifest Destiny and Weimar Germany, probably ignoring what post-1918 Europe really was.

It's the usual paradox: the US is a divided country, perceived to be in decline, yet it remains the most powerful and richest hegemonic state, as the workforce continues to grow and the decentralized system allows the private sector constant dynamism. This, however, creates a hysteresis between wealthy urban centers and inland communities in constant difficulty, which fuels economic disparities and political polarization, to the detriment of national cohesion. The interested Monroe detachment and the propensity for global engagement have led Washington to a spiral in which, despite the lack of resources, conflicts have flared up.

Trump's return, especially when compared to the more thoughtful, reflective and unfortunate Carter who passed away in the last few weeks, is sensational, given the way he left the presidential office, struck by ostracism after the assault on the Capitol; it is almost unthinkable to even imagine the series of presidential decrees that will be issued in the coming weeks. After all, this will be an intense and politically brief, given Trump's inauguration and the German elections in February, events destined to influence international developments.

It is inevitable to think that Trump's return is driven by a strong desire for revenge: just looking at the official portraits of the president makes you imagine it, while Europe, which must and repeats MUST plan a greater and autonomous defense capacity, is less and less cohesive and decidedly more fragile. The one who will presumably be more united will be the American administration, if only because it should have learned the lesson. The belief that Washington must intervene on economic integration at a global level to safeguard sovereignty and wealth, makes one fear the beginning of trade wars, accompanied by international disengagements, as perhaps in Ukraine; by political and leadership reflections on NATO, from which however the stars and stripes will not disappear; by a reprise of the Abraham Accords and by support for Tel Aviv. Pending, the other geopolitical actors in the area, such as Riyadh.

On the domestic level, certain measures are intended to contain and control immigration and initiatives on the environment. It is important to attend to the initiatives of economic and monetary policy, with a possible new framework of the Federal Reserve where the newly elected president intends to have greater possibilities of intervention.

Beware of provocations from POTUS, see Panama and Greenland, not to be evaluated literally but for what, as messages, to China and Russia, are essentially worth or like the one addressed to Canada, recipient of economic and customs warnings. Trump, let's not forget, boasts the insignia of theAmerica First, that is, the pursuit of American security and interests destined to regain leading roles in geopolitical balances.

Internally, for the next 4 years, to In the task of analyzing the national vote, why and how Trump won over the working-class base, traditionally linked to progressive groups, perhaps now more distant from the core of family and work. What the In What they didn't quite understand is that working-class voters have nuanced, almost center-right opinions on the big issues of abortion, health insurance, immigration.

The relationship between MAGA The Donald and the great helmsman Xi, between the parvenu of politics and the son of the dragon, strong of an unprecedented consolidation of power, with Taiwan in the shadows. The comparison will involve two aspects: on the one hand, trying to put Beijing in a wait-and-see position by altering its capacity for equilibrium, drawing it into uncertainty but without exacerbating it; on the other, considering the ever-present risk of a pro-decoupling strategy, despite the absence of a real economic recession.

The new American Administration, more effectively, will have to implement the ideas provided by Biden, for example with the QUAD, and in any case bring the multilateral initiatives to greater consistency and proactivity against China: if one wants, one could mean continuity in discontinuity. Trump remains an unpredictable political subject, if one can use the term, competitive to incorrectness, competitive to exasperation. In a completely different form from that adopted in recent decades by the mainstream, perhaps, American exceptionalism has rediscovered itself as a protagonist, revealing itself in a different and more authentically Yankee form, less ideological and more concrete.

We'll see. The game is still to be played.

Photo: official Facebook page for Donald J. Trump