Look for the keywords: "Piano B Savona" on Google and you realize that five million results emerge. To understand, more or less as "Palio di Siena" and "Alfa Romeo Alfetta": enough to say that a media phenomenon has been born and that people continue to discuss even if the president Sergio Mattarella has moved Professor Paolo Savona from the potential role of super minister of the economy to the effective role of responsible for relations with Europe. Yeah, a bit like moving from a human resources manager to a company where your former treacherous employee works at the emptying of baskets in his office. We do not imagine enthusiastic former government minister led by Carlo Azeglio Ciampi ...
The reader will forgive the whim of the writer. The fact is that we the notorious Plan B we read it all right. It seemed serious, but it did not fascinate us: it was not born as a political manifesto, but it was written in a very articulate and rich way to answer in advance to many technical-economic objections. For this reason, in the end it ends up looking a bit "indigestible" for those who face it with the aim of imagining it in motion, not just static on paper. We do not intend to do an in-depth analysis, which we may reserve for the month of August, in order to offer "beach" readers something (perhaps) appreciated. We like, as mentioned, try to turn the key, to start the Plan B. With amazement, we realize - and in a few lines we will explain why - that does not start, does not start: not even burst. Precisely, it makes a silent scene, like the first car produced in Turkey many decades ago, which at the time of the inauguration did not want to ignite. There is the doubt that it is a bit like certain inventions of Leonardo da Vinci: maybe Paolo Savona - as often did the Renaissance genius - has rigged the project not to copy it to the "rivals" and has not made any major mistake. The writer leaves the conclusion to the reader, while trying to find the trick or the error that blocks the machine of Plan B.
We think we find it in the 31 slide (iimage below) since other similar slides are actually pure theory and attempt to justify the action: the slide 31 provides the first real steps, to be done, starting from the first, to say the least naive: "forewarn other governments ... with minimum advance "of the intention to" remain within the EU ... by breaking the treaties "and then" to leave the euro zone quickly "by making" friendly statements ". Here is the busillis: the minimum notice. Please forgive the highly esteemed professor, but find it difficult to find a politician in the entire national history (let alone in the present picture) assume the burden (or honor, if sovereign) to make this series of useless and bizarre communications. But let us also make a politician available - or be convinced - and that he is the ambassador of these Fantozzian communications ("we will honor the commitments as much as possible ..."). Well, it's ten o'clock in the evening on a Friday and the bags are closed: we inform Europe and the world that we are leaving the Euro, with all the verbal "guarantees" mentioned above and making loyalties to the European Union . What reaction is to be expected? Does anyone seriously believe that on Monday morning the president of the Italian council can sit - more or less serenely - at the table together with one or all the leaders of the Union as if nothing has happened? If someone thinks it, the facts will fall on him like boulders: as we prepare to make friendly statements, what will happen to us will be subjected to the harshest ostracism and isolation seen in Europe since the Second World War: in short, we will find ourselves surrounded by a sanitary - political, economic and diplomatic cordon - as happened during and after the War of Abyssinia. Yes, because we will be, willing or not, in fact and in law outside the European Union and to play the role of the Gano, the traitor of the Empire: there is no clause for the exit from the Eurozone, we will automatically slip out of all treaties constitutive of the European structure, apart perhaps (and to no avail1) Schengen, NATO and the OSCE. In short, no more free circulation of goods, services, capital and people. And all this not as a product of negotiations, more or less harsh, with Brussels and other capitals, but from evening to morning, the result of a unilateral decision "in a hurry" followed by "friendly statements".
Once this piece has been removed, the Piano B machine actually starts working. The writer wants to show you his first steps, asking the reader to try to immergercisi for what it is: entrepreneur, student, career military, unemployed.
Professor Savona does not exclude the default, indeed at times seems to wish it to free the country from the burden and the ties of 1.900 billions of debts. Too bad that for almost 60% our debt is held by Italian families and investors, as well as by the Bank of Italy (which in turn is the cornerstone of the national banking system). Of the two: one or someone thinks of a "controlled bankruptcy" with domestic investors paid in New Lira2 - and with the consequent bankruptcy of even the largest Italian banks with overlaid billions and billions of securities "intoxicated" by the exchange of the currency - or indeed the default is considered a way to "pay off" the debts and start again. In these and other scenarios, it seems clear that a failed country - and politically reduced at the level of Iran or Belarus to say the least - will not be able to access international markets to fund spending plans: it goes without saying that taxation tax will have to go up in a frightening way and you will have to consider the hypothesis of continuing to pay the debt in Euro without becoming insolvent. Just a nice start ... But it's not over here!
Yes, because - while the machine of the Plan B advances - there are about two million refugees to be fed and to be lodged in Italy within a few weeks. The reader has misunderstood if he thinks of the false refugees coming from Libya: they are our fellow citizens who live - under the protection of the European treaties - within the Union. These are cooks and waiters, students and entrepreneurs, workers and professionals who work or do business around Europe in 27 thanks to the advantages of the treaties. In a short time, as happened to the Germans of Silesia and the Sudeten or the Poles of Lviv, they will be thrown into their homeland in the hardest hour: and to think that they had gone around Europe without frontiers to seek fortune and success! Beyond the shock, they will all be "poor cristi" to whom they give a roof and food: to imagine them costing 70 euro a day - twice as many asylum seekers - we would get the sum of 105 billion in two years. In Old Liras, it's almost 210 Thousand Billions: a nice account, eh?
But companies will not pay for it: apart from the disappearance of synergies and the opportunities offered them by the single market, their investments around Europe will become - together with the properties of the state abroad - the object of expropriation to pay debts. and the real or presumed slopes left by Italy at the time of the tear.
Yeah, the moment of the break ... Can you imagine the way in which a model organization like ours will manage the interests of our fellow citizens who are abroad for vacation or for work when they leave the euro in Italy? Think of the poor accountant Brambilla visiting a fair in Germany, paying by credit card, traveling from the industrious Lombardy with his car and using the Italian identity card abroad: you are sure that consulates and embassies, if our diplomatic staff will not be expelled immediately, will they offer them sufficient protection?
Yes, because the political-diplomatic position of Italy, while progressing Plan B, is gradually becoming more and more uncomfortable: suddenly outside the Union, excluded from the markets and the freedoms that ensue, Italy has 26 enemies in Europe and a network of friends to be built. Will Vladimir Putin's Russia help us by massively buying our debt? Even if it is so, the thing must be built and has a cost. But above all it has important limitations: the writer doubts that Moscow will be able to subscribe more than 100 billions of Euros of securities and certainly will not want them payable in New Liras, but in a "serious" currency. We would lack something else ... The same applies to Saudi Arabia (or Qatar), China and the United States. Then, why should all these subjects antagonize Berlin and Paris just to please Rome? Do you think that at international level they give favors?
Yes, nobody buys the titles in New Lira, because the new currency is not really a successful currency at least at the beginning. According to the anti-Euro party, of which Professor Savona is not exponent, at this point a competitive devaluation will start and we will be able to sell our goods at more competitive prices. Similar calculation errors show that indeed the ways of hell are paved with good intentions! Apart from the paradox that in Italy we mainly produce premium and luxury goods and services for which, by definition, price is not a determining factor, the question remains: to whom we will sell them, given that our former European partners represent 60% of our customers? And will they really allow us to sell Prada and Giorgio Armani at half the price of Vuitton and Givenchy? Perhaps no one has heard of duties to prevent dumping?
Probably, Prada and Giorgio Armani will not even be affected by the crisis, apart from the damage of image: yes, because the major companies will then flee abroad. Remember the escape from Catalonia in the days of bankruptcy independence?
We stop here. The Catalan case descends on Plan B as a warning: some dreams sometimes turn into nightmares. And some awakenings are very bad.
1 Because we will most likely be suspended by everyone at the request of European partners.
2 Faced with a massive issue of over one trillion, one could easily pay debts in footballer's cards or in Monopoly banknotes: the value of the currency issued and offered to the poor Italian creditors would be more or less the same as the paper used to print it.