The fate of migrants at the mercy of European diplomatic games

(To Ivano Fiorentino)
07/10/16

Six months after the implementation of the agreement with Turkey, the migration phenomenon towards the heart of Europe continues to characterize the newspapers' news and inflames the national and international political debate. Due to the increasing overlap of the traditional flow of migrants with that of refugees, the movement of individuals to Europe has now reached a disturbing nature.

In fact the polarization of mixed migrants towards the areas with the highest rate of development, it would be partly justified by the basic principles of capitalist society, as theorized by A. Smith himself. Nowadays, however, the dramatic and paradoxical aspect of the story is represented by the fact that this mobility of the work factor is no longer just the expression of a "natural" phenomenon.

Wars and economic crises are increasingly identified as the main ones push factors that push hundreds of people a day to the Italian and Greek coasts. A mass of desperate people, with a past to be forgotten and almost certainly without a future, which revealed the shortcomings of the European Union.

Over the past eight years it is estimated that over two million people in need, regularly registered, have reached Europe (of which about one million only in 2015). The analysis of the data of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) clearly shows that the current flow of migrants along the central Mediterranean route to Italy is in line with the seasonal trend of previous years. Since the beginning of the 2016, despite the efforts of the International Community (for example with the operations: UNSMIL, EUBAM Libya and EUNAVFORMED), the total annual volume of landings in Italy has once again exceeded 130mila quota.

Likewise, the situational picture in Hellenic land certainly does not appear to be more encouraging. Without a doubt the official statistics seem to confirm the effectiveness of the EU-Turkey agreement, yet there are two aspects to highlight. First of all, after the blight summer in Turkey the number of daily landings on the Greek coast shows a tendential growth. To this it should be added that after the closure of the Balkan route, over 70mila mixed migrants waiting for a response from Europe they are blocked in Greece. This situation contributes to increasing internal tensions and incidents, such as that of the island of Lesbos (19 / 09 / 2016), where a reception center has been on fire. Even if the causes are still being investigated, this constitutes an event that should not be underestimated, because even in other countries (not only in Europe), similar phenomena fueled by xenophobic psychosis can significantly increase. 

In general terms, the Greek and Italian cases at this particular historical moment have many similarities. But an aspect that requires further attention, and that Europe (with its centers of early warning e assessment) must prudently evaluate, is represented by the growing number of asylum requests in Italy during the first half of the 2016. The causes of this phenomenon are to be found in the limitations along the Alps and in the restrictions imposed on migrants in most of the main northern European countries. And therefore, in the light of the current data and confirming the trends of the last two years, in line with the progressive increase of people in need coming mainly from sub-Saharan Africa, it is estimated that by the end of the year Italy will receive at least others 30 - 40 mila mixed migrants. Numbers that will put further strain on the national reception system, which already hosts more than twice as many Greek volumes (according to official estimates over foreign 160).

Italy risks being put under pressure. Not only to face with impetus solidify the crisis of migrants, but at the same time rigorously face economic stability. It is a disturbing scenario, fueled moreover by the bigoted and paradoxical attitude of Europe. In reality, while in the main ones summit and international fora, Europe and its members have unanimously married the cause of resolutely addressing and comprehensive the scourge of migration, on the practical level instead individualistic policies are adopted (such as the construction of walls along the borders). Actions that inevitably penalize other states, and specifically those in the border area.

In this hint of pathogenesis of the complications associated with migration and above all the risks for Italy, it seems increasingly clear that the migration phenomenon to Europe is not an opportunity for development. Taking into account the political implications, essentially of a regional nature, migration instead becomes a "strategic tool". A weapon that could be used / exploited by state actors (or not) to consolidate its supranational / national interests.

Indeed, in recent months the issue of migration is increasingly playing a decisive role in electoral results. Following the growing risk of attacks in the heart of Europe and after BREXIT, almost certainly due to political opportunism, Germany and France seem to be taking greater distance from regional policies in favor of migrants.

In this frame of reference, the absence of suitable measures for the main countries of origin and the obtuseness of Europe in putting in place and credibly concrete actions (see first of all the plan for the redeployment of asylum seekers with a threshold of 3% of implementation) are elements that inevitably feed a cocktail very dangerous that sooner or later it will bring Italy to the margins of the Euro zone.

For this reason, the recent moves of the Italian Premier in the international field, regarding migrants, appear not only coherent, but above all justified. In line with the declarations of the European summit in Bratislava, also during the New York summit for migrants and refugees, Renzi focused his speech on the need from Europe to Do more, also for the African continent. Moreover, in extreme situations, Italy has declared itself ready to act alone in favor of Africa! At this point, how should this unequivocal position be interpreted? Could this be the beginning of a new tug-of-war in the diplomatic field? Or on the contrary the beginning of a new era of fruitful collaboration to develop concrete actions in Europe?

In support of the Italian position there are also the considerations and proposals developed in the report of the Overseas Development Institute. With data in hand, it is pointed out that European policy to manage the migrant crisis, centered on deterrence and border closure, is not only very expensive (over 17 billion in the last two years) but at the same time it has also proved ineffective. Criminal organizations are able to adapt and find new ways to move hundreds of people on a daily basis to European borders. Suffice it to say that in Egypt the number of migrants has increased during the last semester, and the recent incident off the Egyptian coast (with more than 600 dead) would substantially confirm this.

In this scenario of tenebrous hues, the need to reinforce a shared and long-term strategy to free the root causes of the vicious circle of migration at the time of globalization. But addressing this issue means recalling others, such as: crisis areas in the Middle East and North Africa regions, which are associated with the themes of international terrorism and foreign fighters. Here, then, that the real challenge today is the clash / harmonization of two principles. On the one hand the humanitarian side of reception and on the other the territorial defense and national identities.

To conclude, in search of images of synthesis of this odyssey of the mixed migrant polarized towards Europe, the "raft of the Medusa" (of the painter Géricault) can be used. After two centuries, with its realism, drama and above all symbolism, it is possible to understand how the fate of thousands of men, women and children in need is substantially at the mercy of political decisions and diplomatic relations in Europe. It follows, therefore, that diplomatic ambiguities, negligence or even just a delay in decisions, inevitably means condemning these migrants to an inauspicious fate, just as it was for the crew of the "Medusa" in the waters off the coasts Western Africa. 

(photo: "The raft of the Medusa", Théodore Giscault, Louvre)