The whispers from the Yemeni war

(To Denise Serangelo)
15/04/15

Operation Battle Decisive has definitely lost credibility. Saudi Arabia continues to bomb the Shia Houthi rebels with innate stubbornness and the only result obtained is that of having lost face in the eyes of the entire international community.

While the planes are claiming victims for no apparent strategic purpose; the rebels gain additional territory and control Bab el-Mandeb and much of the city of Aden. We see that under the bombs we organize better.

The aim of the offensive was to stem the Houthi advance, but the repercussions of a hasty and superficial foreign policy such as the one undertaken by the Saudis could lead to consequences far worse than expected.

The counter-offensive of the Shiite militias was obvious - those attacked defend themselves - and in fact on the northern border there are the first deaths of the coalition that were placed to protect the Saudi borders.

But what no one expected was the concrete risk of internal instability of the petromonarchia, the concern of a possible civil war scares everyone; bordering countries included.

According to reliable sources, the Shiite minority of the country would be on a war footing and threatens repercussions for the offensives undertaken in Yemen. The group, albeit a minority, has the capacity to manage a small guerrilla within the country. Will Ryad at least be able to stop them from being born?

The possibility that these micro-riots infiltrate elements of IS or Al-Qaeda in the country is absolutely concrete.

The two terrorist groups would be strongly tempted to exploit Saudi chaos to conquer vital and economically important posts, taking advantage of international repercussions to their advantage.

The rise in the value of crude oil and the consequent steep rise in consumer prices alarm not only the Gulf but the entire international community.

In this tangled skein from which it attempts to come to the surface, Saudi Arabia must face the rebus Iran. For the occasion, the latter has put his best warships in the air, which for some days have been stationed near the territorial waters of Yemen.

The official reason for this mobilization is the probable evacuation of its citizens from a country on the road to civil war. Unofficially Tehran is moving troops to ensure support for the Houthi factions in the event of an open battle.

For those who followed the story from its debut, it knows that in the Gulf of Aden, Egyptian and Saudi warships that will not allow the entry of Iranian ships until the end of the offensive are docked, by March 27.

The possibility that a clash is born remains high, but until the end it will try to avoid open hostility at sea in order to reduce economic and human losses that no country involved can sustain.

Iranian military involvement is the one that most frightens the international community that has just returned from a victory, with the signing of the nuclear agreement, but which fears a call to arms of Shiite communities in the world.

This call would certainly not trigger a planetary war, but would exacerbate already critical situations leaving ample room for maneuver to terrorist groups dear to the news.

The embarrassment of poor results and the clumsy politics leading the offensive is compounded by the annihilation of the Saudi leadership in the coalition it leads. Pakistan, which at first appeared to be on the front line alongside Riyadh, has now changed stance and remains neutral.

The decision strongly disagrees with the Arab states and could cost the Islamic republic dear.

The huge funds poured into the Pakistani atomic project are readily revocable, so Islamabad ensures total availability only in case of attack and declares itself a great ally of the Saudi monarchy.

Turkey, with its recent visit to Tehran, seems to have gone unmarked and while fighting and financing (perhaps) the jihadists together with Qatar against Shiite governments and militias, it has moved away from the Saudi giant, its direct competitor in the struggle for regional leadership.

Oman and Algeria have also taken off their games with exceptional skill, moving away from the military offensives, re-evaluating their diplomatic weight in the agreements for a peaceful resolution of the Yemeni question.

They remain deployed with determination alongside the Saudis Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Ryad's diplomatic hindrances have a heavy impact on the military offensive in progress, can not be bombed forever and sooner or later someone will have to set foot beyond the border of Yemen.

With such a small coalition it is difficult to think of a terrestrial intervention. Riyadh does not have a large and well-trained army to defeat the well-armed and experienced Houthi rebels alone.

A land intervention would be possible only with extensive support from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates which, however, have far more serious problems than go along with the slaughter of the Saudis. Egypt has difficulty in fully controlling the Sinai Peninsula, where there is a strong presence of IS-related groups and in the west it must support the Libyan government in its fight against Libyan Dawn and the Caliphate. The UAE, on the other hand, is very close to Iran and engaging in war in Yemen would make them too vulnerable in the event of an Iranian response. 

Jordan, Sudan, Oman and Bahrain have too many internal and border issues to help the Saudis in Yemen except with the availability of some fighter aircraft and a pat on the back.

Yemen was to be the shining example of how the Saudi leadership in the Gulf would lead this fragmented geopolitical zone towards a glorious future of political and military unification. However, defeat came from every possible front. His now obvious loss of credibility in the region puts the monarchy in a tight spot that sooner or later will have to decide how to go ahead or finish this now haphazard "Decisive Storm".

In the Arab emirates there is growing awareness that the armies, despite being modernly equipped, are absolutely devoid of the war experience necessary to carry out a conflict like the one started last March.

None of the enlisted soldiers is sufficiently dedicated to the cause of his country to be able to take up a rifle, let alone manage an operation at a tactical level.

The bombings are a symptom, not only of little strategic vision but also of a non-existent will of the soldiers to "get their hands dirty" with a war that everyone would like to do without.

This "decisive battle" began with vigor and many expectations. The entire military world - diplomacy included - was waiting to see Saudi Arabia and its associates become aware of their political and military weight by becoming managers of their own security, but they did not. We witnessed a show whose prologue was brilliant but lasted a few pages, the development non-existent and an ending that will hardly satisfy anyone. 

The Saud family took the longest step of the leg, thought it could handle a complex and asymmetric military operation with some allies (allies more on paper than in reality) and expensive equipment.

After two weeks it seems obvious that the Gulf States do not have a military-political maturity that supports their own needs.

In this way, the creation of the United States of Arabia with its multinational army becomes a distant mirage, a project that if well started would have become a great example of military cooperation and unprecedented political foresight.

The haste and the thought that money alone will win the wars have brought Saudi Arabia back into the corner of the unprepared and unleashed a war from which we should at least save the salvable.

To command a coalition and move war, whispers are not enough, you have to raise your voice.

Or scream or shut up, if you are without a voice you can not even participate.