Cecilia Sala: Victim or Message from Tehran?

(To Claudio Verzola)
28/12/24

The recent arrest of Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi at Malpensa airport and the detention of the Italian journalist Cecilia Sala in Iran raise questions about a probable interconnection between the two events, inserted in a complex geopolitical framework. The dynamics of these events raise reflections on the unstable balance between international justice, diplomacy and political strategies.

Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi, a 38-year-old Iranian citizen, was stopped in Malpensa on December 16 at the request of the American justice system. Accused of having illegally exported electronic components from the United States to Iran, in violation of sanctions laws, Abedini would also have provided material support to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an organization designated as a terrorist organization by the United States. This charge includes alleged links to the drone strike that caused the Three American soldiers killed in Jordan.

The arrest represents a significant step in the US strategy to counter Iranian military and technological activities. The geopolitical component emerges clearly: Iran is constantly under pressure for its nuclear program and for its destabilizing role in the Middle East region.

A few days after Abedini's arrest, Cecilia Sala, an Italian journalist known for her investigations into global conflicts, was arrested in Iran and transferred to Evin prison, infamous for its treatment of political prisoners. The temporal coincidence between the two events raises legitimate suspicions of a possible causal link. This is not the first time that Tehran has used foreign citizens as pawns in the context of its diplomatic relations.

Although the Italian authorities have stressed thelack of official connections between the two episodes, they could not do otherwise, the geopolitical context makes plausible the hypothesis that Tehran is using the Sala case as instrument to put pressure on Italy and, indirectly, on the United States.

In this context, Iran is trying to consolidate its role as an actor that does not bow to Western pressure, using tactics already observed in the past. The charges against Abedini represent a direct threat to Iran's technological capabilities, which is why his arrest could be perceived by Tehran as a hostile act not only by the US, but also by Italy.

Italy is in a delicate position. On the one hand, it must respect the obligations arising from international cooperation with the United States; on the other, it must manage the consequences of such cooperation on bilateral relations with Iran. The Sala case, followed with the utmost discretion by the Farnesina, represents a crucial challenge for Italian diplomacy.

Hostage politics is not a new practice, similar cases have occurred in the past. In 2022, the travel blogger Alessia Piperno was held for over a month in Iran, presumably as an indirect response to international pressure. Even earlier, the case of the British-Iranian citizen Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe He highlighted how Tehran often uses such detentions as a negotiating tool, tying the release of detainees to specific demands, such as the lifting of sanctions or the release of frozen assets.

In recent years, several Western countries have faced similar situations. In 2019, Iran arrested Michael White, a U.S. Navy veteran, using him as a negotiating pawn to obtain concessions from the United States. Again, his release came only after intense negotiations.

Similarly, China has adopted similar strategies, as in the case of the detention of two Canadian citizens, Michael Kovrig e Michael Spavor, in response to the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, Huawei executive, in Canada at the request of the USA.

For Italy, this is a test to demonstrate its diplomatic capacity and its commitment to the protection of human rights, without compromising its strategic role in the global panorama, in a climate of growing tensions that characterizes international relations.

The economic damage resulting from tensions with Iran

The embargo and sanctions against Iran have inflicted significant damage on the Italian economy, accentuating the complexity of bilateral relations. In particular:

  • bilateral trade down - Sectors such as machinery, chemicals and consumer goods have seen exports plummet from around €1,7 billion in 2017 to significantly lower values ​​in subsequent years.
  • energy sector - Italy, once a major importer of Iranian oil, has had to seek alternative, higher-cost suppliers.
  • industrial and infrastructure projects interrupted - Major Italian companies, such as ENI, have abandoned significant investments in the Iranian oil sector. Collaborations in the automotive and railway sectors have also been suspended.
  • banking difficulties - Restrictions on financial transactions have hampered trade, blocking payments and credit.
  • effects on SMEs - Small and medium-sized Italian businesses, active in sectors such as fashion, agri-food and furniture, have lost an important and receptive market.

These economic damages further aggravate the Italian position, which is forced to balance the pressure of the United States with the need to preserve economic and strategic interests in a crucial area such as the Middle East.