Arctic Made in China

(To Francesco Bergamo)
08/08/16

The incredible economic and industrial growth of China in recent years means that the Asian giant is looking for what it can do to maintain the production trend. Constant research to guarantee access to raw materials, vital to its economy, brings Beijing to strategic investments. 

From the 2013 China has become a permanent observer of the Arctic Council and around the Arctic is seeking commercial alliances with neighboring states, such as the free trade agreement with Iceland.

Beijing has the serious intention to monitor the area and increase its influence in the short term on the Arctic, given the increase in economic investments in this regard, ensuring that there are no negative interference from coastal states. It is also significant that the China system is already trying to operate to enter the Greenlandic metal area, thus aiming to have ever greater quantities of iron, copper and uranium important for the construction of products high-tech for the defense and civil sectors.

According to a study by the US Geological Survey, the Arctic has in its bowels something like 13% of the world's oil, 20% of LNG (liquefied natural gas) and 30% of gas resources, as well as titanium, coal, chromium, copper, manganese, tungsten, nickel, zinc, gold and silver. All 84% in offshore waters.

In the medium to long term, China's commitment could cause a certain economic loss to the states that historically have interests in that geographical area and not for nothing the Ddis (Danish Defense Intelligence Service) is already monitoring the development of this scenario very carefully. 

According to the report China Prepares for an ice-free Arctic by Linda Jakobson (more) of Sipri (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) China is pursuing serious planning to transit as soon as possible in the Arctic area. Beijing is starting to look at the Arctic region with increasing interest, although it is not yet the top priority of its ruling class.

The Arctic is important both for what it is under and for the navigation routes: at full sailing, China, through the North-East passage of Russia, would have a shorter route than 6400 km, equivalent to 15 days of navigation , and less expensive towards Northern Europe while considering some additional costs such as special ships suitable for Arctic navigation. The new route would no longer have the problem of piracy between Suez and Malacca.
The hypothetical scenario, once realized, would be interesting for Beijing because sea transport, the 70% of the Chinese total, would be spread over two important routes, also making the nation safe from the possible closure by naval blockade, in case of war or diplomatic tensions, of the only route currently used.

Another important factor taken into account for the expansion of the route to the North is the fact that, due to the melting of the ice, the navigation would be continuous for 12 months against current 5 (from July to November). Only in 2015 Russia, China, Holland and Sweden transported goods on the Arctic route for 1.35ML tons; but Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has planned to arrive by 2030 at 80ML of tons. Such a strong increase in the route in question will give China a further significant boost to its trade.

President Xi Jinping gave a powerful boost to foreign policy and defense. The goal is to have more weight at the international level, but this will inevitably lead to the involvement of Chinese FFAAs in foreign scenarios with real operations militar support.

General Han Xudong in his Closely watched disputes over Arctic sovereignty, written in the 2008, hypothesized that it could not exclude the use of force in the Arctic. According to the findings, Beijing has already started the first phase by increasing the initiatives of marketing and political propaganda towards foreign countries for greater visibility. However, it will be interesting to see any criticism, from the international community, following Beijing's inaction from compliance with international standards. The current Chinese political and economic operations are creating frictions with the area subject to American influence.

In the medium-long term, Beijing will have an increasingly dominant role in regional trade. It is clear, therefore, that the nations bordering on the Asian giant go to counterbalance its growth with the search for US military protection. China to tip the balance of regional supremacy aims to expand its presence in the Chinese Sea by creating an increasingly strong, futuristic and supported by real artificial islands.

(photo: US Navy)