A true European response to Putin: military deterrence in the East and NATO enlargement to include all EU countries

(To Antonio Li Gobbi)
27/02/22

The Russian tanks are at the gates of Kiev. We could long discuss how we got to this point and what could have been done at least since 2014 to prevent similar dramatic developments. One could argue about Putin's tsarist imperialism (underestimated by too many and for too long), about the lack of US scruples in using Kiev as a tool in their geopolitical confrontation with Moscow (letting Kiev imagine concrete help that was known would not have materialized), or to NATO's myopia in not understanding the sense of encirclement denounced by Russia or, finally, to the irrelevance of the EU which has never even seriously tried to act as a credible mediator between Ukraine and Russia.

It could and sooner or later it will have to. But not now!

Now it is from one point of view too late and on the other premature for these discussions.

Now we essentially need to focus on few clear and unambiguous answers in order to send a few strong messages to Russia. First of all to make it clear that if the West (USA, EU and NATO) was surprised by the Russian attack in Ukraine, this will not be repeated for further military aggression from Moscow. Furthermore, that the aggression against Ukraine will lead to a worsening and certainly not an improvement of Russian security on its western borders.

Leaving aside the belated and now probably useless shipments of armaments to the Ukrainians, the writer does not believe that this can be achieved by adopting economic sanctions alone. An instrument that appears to be aimed more at fixing our conscience as "capitalist merchants" than at exerting real pressure on the Russian regime. On the other hand, experience should teach us that such measures do not lead to the overthrow of dictatorial regimes from within. At least not in an acceptable time frame (indeed, sometimes they get the opposite result, that is, they reinforce the perception of the population of being the victim of the economic aggression of “international capitalism”). The ineffectiveness of the economic sanctions adopted against North Korea, Iran, Syria and Russia itself after the annexation of Crimea have taught us this in recent times.

Looking back at home too, the effects of the sanctions adopted against fascist Italy in relation to the attack on Ethiopia in 1935 have only obtained the result of bringing Mussolini closer to Hitler. Similarly, these sanctions (even without taking into account the negative impact on European economies, but not on the US) will inevitably lead to an ever-stronger strengthening of Russia's proximity to China.

I am well aware that evoking military measures in Europe today seems to be out of touch with reality. Moreover, if we want to be credible towards an adversary who uses the military instrument, we must demonstrate that we are ready to use the military instrument too.

Unfortunately, proving that you are truly willing to use the military tool does not mean sending tens of thousands of men to the eastern frontier of the Alliance, almost only to "show the flags" of the allied countries and provide a symbolic sign of closeness.

Without wishing to go into too many details here, NATO should consistently and for an extended period of time reinforce its defensive organization on its eastern borders, clearly showing its determination to defend both Russian or Belarusian military activities. Allies are the Friendly Countries (primarily the EU countries that are not members of the Alliance) with deployments of forces that are potentially lasting and of adequate size.

Similarly, the EU, obviously unable for the time being to guarantee the security of its member countries in the event of Russian aggression, should better coordinate with NATO on this matter.

Of course, we know that the EU “Strategic Compass” is expected to be adopted next month (March 2022). This should be a timid first step on which we need to build something more solid, but that is the future. Now we need to think about the present. And the present (I say this as a convinced pro-European) today is only NATO.

In this context, one cannot ignore the acknowledgment that only 21 of the 27 EU countries are NATO members (although all the major ones are).

Consequently, according to the writer, the EU and NATO should initiate adequate political action to induce all EU countries to join the Atlantic Alliance. This would be a strong geopolitical response to Putin.

As I wrote, only 6 of the 27 EU countries are not members of NATO. Moreover, 4 of them (Sweden, Finland, Austria and Ireland) already enjoy an extremely effective form of restricted politico-military cooperation with the Atlantic Alliance (the "special relationship ") and their possible access would technically be little more than a formal act.

Of course, the possible accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO would be perceived as a challenge on Putin's part, but it is a challenge that cannot but be launched in this situation. Both for the geopolitical signal that he would launch, and for the protection of the Euro-Atlantic space and the credibility of the EU itself, which cannot accept Russian diktats to its member countries. Such a choice would lead to the welding of the NATO land front from the Barents Sea to the Black Sea.

Politically more problematic would be the case of Cyprus and Malta, nations with which (due to Turkey's opposition) the Alliance has no de facto relations today. But essential both from the political profile of Euro-Atlantic cohesion and as a signal to Russia that for years has been expanding its military presence on the eastern and southern coasts of the Mediterranean.

Access by all EU countries to NATO would make the responses of these two organizations to the Russian threat more coordinated, and would give Russia a strong signal of Euro-Atlantic political-military cohesion.

In summary, a threat brought with tanks must also be responded to with tanks, even if culturally we try to shy away from this idea. The adoption of economic measures alone satisfies our consciences but will not bring down Putin.

To be credible in this deterrence (and not leave it to American leadership), it is necessary to show maximum cohesion between NATO and the EU.

The return to a confrontation in Europe with the need to prove ready even for a classic war (and not only for "expeditionary operations" as NATO has done in the last 30 years) will have to make us also reconsider the configuration of our Armed Forces (and this is a topic that cannot be underestimated).

Photo: US Marine Corps / web / Finnish Air Force