As elections take place across the West, the issue of aid to Ukraine remains a central topic of debate. Some candidates have expressed their reluctance to continue supporting Kyiv.
Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, Donald Trump's former national security advisors, have revealed their peace plan for Ukraine. The draft, presumably approved by Trump, includes cutting off US military aid to Ukraine to force Kyiv to negotiate. A line, however, also fully shared by the sen. James David Vance, chosen as "running mate" for the race for the White House by Donald Trump.
Kyiv cannot be certain that it will be able to continue to provide the same flow of military aid after elections in some partner states. One solution to this problem is to invest more time and resources in strengthening Ukraine's national defense industry.
Since the beginning of the large-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine has undertaken intensive development projects in the defense industry. These efforts have focused not only on increasing production rates in general, but also on the development, testing and launch of mass production of completely new weapons systems, such as unmanned naval drones or the self-propelled howitzer 2mm 22S155 "Bohdana". According to Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, production capacity tripled in 2023 and the goal for 2024 is to increase it sixfold. He also said that more than 265 billion hryvnias (about $6,5 billion) will be spent on the purchase, production and repair of weapons, which "means more drones, more shells, more ammunition and armored vehicles for the [Ukrainian] army".
The Ukrainian defense industry faces some difficulties in achieving these goals, including the problem of scaling up development and production. The solution in this case could be to attract foreign companies to accelerate the development of new production facilities.
During the round table "The Ukrainian defense industry and its capabilities to meet the needs of the front line", Yaroslav Kalinin, director of theInfozahyst Research and Production Center, which makes equipment for SIGnals INTelligence, electronic warfare and cyber defense, addressed another aspect of the industrial growth problem. "If we don't bring foreign companies here and allow local companies to negotiate terms, after the victory, we will face the collapse of the military-industrial complex caused by overload", Kalinin said.
Another critical issue is raising the funds needed to support increased production in Ukraine's war-torn economy. The Ukrainian leadership is currently focused on three key initiatives. First, Ukraine is working to extend the funds of theEuropean Peace Facility to reimburse Member States purchasing equipment directly from Ukraine. Second, Kyiv hopes to use profits from frozen Russian assets to purchase domestic military equipment. Third, Ukraine is trying to include purchases from Ukrainian manufacturers in the European Defense Industry Programme. This is necessary to bridge the gap between available capacities and required production.
Several countries have already joined these initiatives. On May 22, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced a long-term assistance program for Ukraine worth 6,5 billion euros from 2024 to 2026. On June 13, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov signed a memorandum of understanding with his Danish colleague Troels Lund Poulsen on the purchase of weapons and equipment from Ukrainian manufacturers. “This is a big step, as Denmark has become the first foreign NATO country to invest in weapons production in Ukraine”, Umerov said.
Such support for Ukraine is becoming a priority for the United States. In particular, during the opening session of the Ukraine Defense Industrial Base Conference in Washington, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin said Ukraine's ability to produce critical military equipment domestically is critical to its ability to maintain lasting freedom and sovereignty within its borders. Furthermore, as part of the recently signed US-Ukraine bilateral security agreement, Washington agreed to "engage with international partners and their defense industries to support increased Ukrainian production in the long term".
Several successful examples of international cooperation with Ukrainian defense companies, both state and private, have already begun. Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar is currently building a factory in the Kyiv region. Furthermore, the German defense company Flensburger Fahrzeugbau announced the creation of a service center for armored vehicles in Ukraine. The center will be able to repair "Leopard-1" tanks supplied by Germany. Rheinmetall, one of Germany's largest arms manufacturers, is also building a factory to produce German armored vehicles in Ukraine, in particular the "Fuchs" armored personnel carriers (APCs) and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) "Lynx". Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger explained in an interview with the German weekly WirtschaftsWoche that he plans to produce the first APC Fuchs at the end of summer 2024 and of Lynx IFV already in summer 2025. The first part of the factory became operational in June.
The establishment of j in Ukraine carries some risks. The most obvious is the vulnerability of any fixed structure to Russian attacks, airstrikes or sabotage. As of September 2023, 37 companies in the Ukrainian defense sector have suffered Russian attacks. The Ukrainian industry is suffering from Blackout and lack of qualified personnel, some of whom were mobilized to the front. Furthermore, the production of foreign weapons systems requires permits and licenses, which are sometimes blocked by political issues.
However, according to Ukrainian Finance Minister Yulia Sviridenko, the development of Ukraine's national defense sector could bring additional benefits, including job creation, support for the national economy, strengthening of other industrial sectors and easier and faster delivery of equipment to the front. More importantly, this could ensure autonomy and self-sufficiency in case of sharp changes in the political situation among Ukraine's partners. For foreign manufacturers, this means additional profits, direct access to the latest Ukrainian designs and experiences, and the opportunity to test their equipment in real combat conditions.
Beyond the most immediate considerations, the state of the Ukrainian economy, particularly the military-industrial complex, will continue to play a significant role in Kyiv's reconstruction of the country after the war.
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