Syria: Possible Genocide and Resurgence of Terrorism

(To Giuseppe Morabito)
21/12/24

Following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the emergence of a new “constellation” of power in the territory formerly recognized as Syria not only risks spreading across the region, but also risks causing a possible regional takeover by Erdogan-led Turkey (once described as a dictator by former Italian Prime Minister Draghi).

This is evidenced both by the clear involvement of the Turkish government as a major backer of the extremist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other groups, currently led by Abu Mohammed Al Julani, and by the evidence that Ankara has not only been able to remove the Assad regime, but has also reduced Russian power in the region. Erdogan’s long-term strategy of becoming a major regional power has taken a significant step forward. Currently, high-level Turkish government officials and security service leaders are roaming around Damascus, Hama, Homs and Aleppo. No doubt, Al Julani, who now uses his real name, Ahmed Al Sharaa, will be receiving advice or guidance from the Turkish leadership (Some sources have leaked that Al Juliani himself was part of the terrorist group that organized the bloody terrorist attack on the Italian soldiers in Nasiriyah-Iraq).

In recent years, Turkey has actively supported HTS and other organizations, largely to counter possible takeovers by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of Kurdish and other Western-backed anti-Assad militias that hold a position of power in eastern Syria, bordering Turkey and Iraq, but also to eliminate the YPF (Kurdish militias) and remnants of the PKK in Syria.

As Ahmed Al Sharaa consolidates his power in Damascus and tries to establish a new government, Turkey is involved at all levels. Turkish security officials are in Damascus talking to the new Syrian authorities. Officially, Ankara has brazenly denied any involvement in the overthrow of Assad in recent weeks but that would be like believing that “donkeys can fly”. Analysts are clear that without Turkish consent and support, the offensive operations against Assad would not have been able to be carried out. Ankara has also worked with the HTS against SDF units to push back Kurdish forces in Syria.

In the past few hours, Erdogan expressed his willingness to help Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) form a new political system in Syria and added that Turkey could offer expertise and guidance for this purpose. Erdogan pushes his delegates to state that there is a need to draft a new Syrian constitution and as a confirmation of his aims he decided that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will soon travel to Damascus to discuss the formation of a new Syrian state. This willingness comes in conjunction with HTS's declarations that it has decided to establish a centralized and unitary Syrian state without autonomous or federal regions for minorities, such as the Druze and Kurds..

Unsurprisingly, Erdogan's words come amid a Turkish aggression against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which until now has been militarily supported by the United States. Turkish officials have in recent days confirmed that one of their main objectives in Syria is to "eliminate" the SDF. Turkey and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) have strengthened their military presence immediately outside the area controlled by the SDF and have made no secret that they may attack to conquer that territory. An SNA military commander said on December 20 that his forces were fighting against "separatist parties," referring to the SDF. SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said on December 10 that he wanted "entering a political process for the future" of Syria, but it is unclear what role it would have played if Turkey had taken a major role in the formation of a new Syrian state.

On 20 December, the SDF and the SNA continued to clash along the lines of control in Aleppo province. "Fierce clashes" were confirmed at the Qere Qozaq Bridge, which crosses the Euphrates River. This bridge and a dam downstream have been the site of continuous fighting between the SDF and the SNA since 9 December.

The SDF originally took control of a number of cities from the Assad regime on December 6 and said its forces deployed on December 19 to operate in those cities against Islamic State (ISIS) elements in Iraq and Syria and pushed them back. The exact identity of these anti-SDF elements is unclear at this time but it should be noted that Erdogan has in the past recruited a significant number of former ISIS “cutthroats” into his militias.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) commanding general Michael Krill has said that ISIS intends to exploit instability in Syria to free 8.000 of its fighters from Syrian detention centers. The statement comes as sources close to ISIS have criticized the detention of its fighters in Syria. ISIS has long sought to free its forces from detention centers, and ISIS supporters have increasingly suggested online that the fall of Bashar al Assad presents an opportunity to do so.

There is precedent for Salafi-jihadist groups to exploit political instability, such as what is happening in Syria, to rapidly rebuild their forces. ISIS’s predecessor, al Qaeda in Iraq, rapidly rebuilt itself by releasing fighters from Iraqi detention centers after the US withdrawal from Iraq from 2011 to 2014. ISIS fighters and commanders held in Syrian detention centers represent a sizable fighting force that would support further operations in Iraq and Syria (and there is a danger that they will move to other continents).

The U.S. counter-ISIS mission relies heavily on the SDF as the primary partner force for counter-ISIS in Syria. The ongoing SDF-SNA fighting, as outlined above, will likely impact the SDF’s ability to execute this mission. ISIS is likely aware of the current SDF-SNA dynamic and sees it as an additional opportunity that it could exploit to its advantage. U.S. Department of Defense spokesperson Pat Ryder said that the U.S. has increased its presence in Syria from 900 to approximately 2.000 personnel, and a U.S. delegation led by Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf recently met with HTS leader Ahmed al Shara in Damascus, marking the first time U.S. officials have visited Damascus in over a decade.

As for Iran, pro-government elements are trying to justify Iran's years-long support for Bashar al Assad domestically, downplaying the fact that Assad's fall marks a strategic defeat for Tehran. Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Ahmadian said that Iran intervened in Syria to fight ISIS at Assad's request, but more importantly, it should be remembered that the Iranians were in Syria to threaten the United States and Israel. Iran must accept the evidence that Assad's fall harms theAxis of Resistance, but even if he claims that the terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah are self-sufficient and do not need Iranian support to remain strong, it seems beyond doubt that such a claim has no logical and factual basis.

In conclusion, speaking of indeterminacy in the region is at least cautious. Those most at immediate risk are the Kurdish populations who could suffer the same fate as the Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh or even worse if one considers the situation of impunity and the cruel effrontery that guides Erdogan.

Another genocide by Turkish hands is looming and in the meantime at the Christmas market in Magdeburg… "Islamist" terrorism is re-emerging in the Old Continent.

Photo: presidency of the republic of Turkiye