The agreements with China raise many doubts for Italian national interests

(To David Rossi)
25/03/19

"To think evil is a sin, but often one guesses" the good soul of Giulio Andreotti used to say: a toscanaccio as suspicious as the writer has marked, as a quotation. It is Sunday morning and today, in the absence of Serie A, the first news is the 29 agreements (Weren't they MoUs?) signed between the Italian Government and that of the People's Republic of China. Big stuff, from two or even twenty billion according to the vice premier Luigi Di Maio.

I listen to some considerations on the way ...

"What idea did you make, my friend, of the agreements for the New Silk Road signed by the Government?"

"Neither good nor bad. Rather, it is a MoU, as Di Maio said, not a binding agreement, a simple framework agreement that does not bind our hands ... "

“Apart from the fact that a framework agreement is a Framework Agreement, ie a legal basis for future agreements, a Memorandum of Understanding is little more than a list of elements of a future agreement that is agreed upon at the time of signing. But…"

"But what?"

"My company has signed dozens of MoUs and we have often implemented them as if they were contracts. Especially if you have organized a ceremony, such as the pompous visit of Xi Jinping to Italy and you have made known all the terms, then either you remain the agreement tout court by antagonizing China or turning it into a real contract just as it is . What worries me is something else ... "

"What worries you?"

"A MoU is not subject to any ratification in Parliament, therefore to any public debate, at least as long as it remains so. In short, you never know if the parties that have signed a MoU, whether they are sovereign states or companies or citizens, will give it implicit execution in secret ... and in secret ... "

"Calm, my friend. Here we are not talking about the secret Sykes-Picot or the Molotov-Ribbentrop protocol: Italy and China must not share anything. Nor the Middle East or Eastern Europe. There are no spheres of influence to be shared in secret ... "

"It's true. But an implicit application of a MoU is always possible. But above all we are talking about a country, Italy, whose rulers for forty years have unbridled bulimia of funds. And now the money is less and less. Every year we have to place three hundred or four hundred billion of government bonds and those do not sell themselves. Especially now, at the end of the presidency of the Italian Mario Draghi to the European Central Bank. And at the end of his quantitative easing ... "

"Explain yourself better!"

"You see, Italy is the third country in the world, after the United States and Germany, as gold reserves: we have 2.450 tons of them. In theory, it is a real treasure. Only in theory because, even though Italy has almost 10% of the world's gold reserves, their value (almost 100 billion dollars) is not significant compared to the size of today's economic activities. Our country's public debt exceeds 2.300 billion. And even if we sell it, the price and therefore its actual value would collapse and we would gain little or nothing. We are better placed in terms of foreign exchange reserves, given that we have over 140 billion, which puts us in the top 20 world of Forex holders, ie foreign currencies. However, China is the first country and has accumulated the beauty of 3.015 billions of dollars over the last three decades! "

"He can buy us about twenty times!"

"More, because the four largest banks in the world are Chinese, they are widely controlled by Beijing and have assets for 13.000 billion. To make a comparison, the first four Italians - including the state-owned Cassa Depositi e Prestiti - do not reach 2.000 billion. "

"I understood. But what harm is there if so much of God comes to us a little, buying us the debt? "

"Do you remember the Italian sovereign debt crisis that started in 2011?"

"Who can forget it?"

"Ebbe started when Deutsche Bank put less than ten billion into the market. He did it for reasons that were not just financial but, so to speak, economic policy. In short, he wanted the Italian government to make certain reforms and to convince him he used strong manners. See, Deutsche Bank is a reality for less than 2.000 billions of assets. Can you imagine if we stamped on the interests of Beijing, having a much greater firepower? This in the hypothesis that they begin to make massive purchases of our titles, perhaps "stimulated" by an agreement so to speak ... not in the light of the sun! "

"And will they do it?"

"It is more than probable, also because who else will buy our debt in the near future? Certainly, the Europeans will now want to show their little appreciation for such an uncoordinated initiative from the rest of the countries, in addition to the fact that we have ignored the warnings them and the Americans! If they are very hard, they will end up throwing themselves into the Chinese arms. Which is the goal ... "

"You're too negative. I read of an agreement signed for us by the Ministry of Health for the export of agricultural products. This means doing the good of the Country System! "

"Already. It is a pity that, among these, pork and bovine semen appear above all. About the latter, will you have "remembered" to exclude the possibility of cloning, even if only with the justification of health research? But above all is it not that we will find breeds that are strategic for us, such as Chianina and others, produced in China? And maybe even sold all over the world as Italian meat? "

"You won't want to tell me that the slice of" Italian beef "I serve to my children could be made in China!"

"If you don't exclude re-importing it, of course. He will not be able to use official logos, but it will cost less for large retailers! He then considers that we are committed to selling tons of frozen pork to the Chinese, although it is well known that domestic production does not cover the needs. Now try to imagine the consequences! "

"I don't have the courage ..."

"Easy: the Italian pork takes the path of China, while to produce Italian cured meats not protected by consortia, it is imported from Eastern Europe. In short, the cooked ham you give to children could be exquisite pork from Belarus or Bulgaria ”.

"You exaggerate. The agreement or MoU is a great business opportunity ... "

"I didn't hear about the protection of Made in Italy in China at all. I did a search on Google and I don't talk about it, with regards to the agreements between Italy and China. Isn't the Asian country the "factory" of fakes that damage our businesses? Don't tell me they forgot ... "

"Well, at least Culture with a capital C comes out more protected!"

"There is talk of returning some hundreds of archaeological finds to China: had they started a process? Or did we simply draw up a list of legitimately imported objects when we had the Concession in Tientsin and now we empty the museums to please our new partner? "

"But in the end the balance for companies will be positive!"

"My friend, we have turned against the EU and the United States, which alone buy the 50% of Made in Italy, to please one who buys a tenth of a time and makes unfair competition with fakes. Are we sure that Conte and Di Maio are smarter than all the others? "

"I do not know what to tell you. But at least we have shown the world that Italy can make a strategic and independent decision as a sovereign state! "

"Or that we intend to be a Chinese trojan horse within the European Union to undermine it from within? And didn't you have the impression of a genuless Italy, like a carpet seller in front of the tourist? "

"I do not know. And you, David, tell us what you think instead of tinkering with paper and pen! "

Photo: presidency of the council of ministers