Exclusive interview with Josh Calder

(To Maria Grazia Labellarte)
21/11/16

Josh Calder is an American analyst, currently a partner of the company Foresight Alliance. From the 1990 traces the social, economic, technological and international political change, his studies address the future assets within which the various commercial companies and organizations, including non-profit organizations and government customers, will be able to operate.

Mr Calder, according to the US Constitution the electors chosen by the Electoral College are the "true accredited voters" to vote for the future President on December 19, when they meet in their respective state capitals. Apparently, there is nothing that can technically hinder them from a hypothetical refusal to support the elected candidate, who do you think they will vote for?

The constituency is very likely to vote for Trump, despite some activists calling for otherwise. Only a kind of "justified" indignation towards Trump, before that date, could change the current reality, and in this case Mike Pence, already a candidate for Vice President, would win.

By definition, populism is a political ideology that would like "virtuous citizens" governed by a small circle of elites, who, recognizing this painful political situation, work together to change it. In your opinion, could we call Donald Trump a populist?

Trump was a populist candidate. It is difficult, however, to predict whether it will actually rule as such. Furthermore, the more he collaborates with the "Mainstream" Republicans, the less his policies will be spontaneously populist.

The Monroe doctrine was opposed to European colonialism and sanctioned the NON-interference in European internal affairs by the United States. Do you think that with Trump, the United States will go back to the times of this doctrine? What arrangements would you see in relations between the EU and the United States in the near future?

Trump has expressed some ideas that suggest "isolationism", which would see foreign policy combining military non-interventionism and a policy of economic nationalism, so he may be less interested in internal affairs than the policies of European states. One thing is clear, there is more uncertainty than in recent decades. Neither Europe nor the United States know exactly what Trump will accomplish. There could be clashes and controversies over foreign policies with Russia, Iran, Israel, or even those concerning climate change. Furthermore, Trump could succeed in dividing Europe - as he did with the United States in 2003 for Iraq - especially with the help in power of the most right-wing and populist governments in Europe.

What consequences will European liberal governments suffer?

Trump's success would benefit right-wing populism in Europe by overthrowing some traditional European governments.

Will Trump's advent lead to a US farewell to NATO?

Trump's statements during the campaign would not seem favorable to a transformation of the current policy concerning NATO, at least directly. The biggest challenge would only occur in the event of a crisis with NATO itself, in other words if the administration declined all its commitments to it, or if Trump himself caused a crisis and therefore the remaining NATO allies contested his policy. The polls already show a certain European public not confident of its policy.

(photo: Foresight Alliance)