While half the planet is preparing for war, in the Caucasus a path to peace seems to finally be opening after more than a century of tensions. The crises between Armenia and Azerbaijan are not in fact new, they have roots in the 19th century when ethnic and religious rivalries emerged already under the Russian Empire.
In 1921, the Soviet Union assigned Nagorno-Karabakh, a region Armenian majority, to Azerbaijan, creating a territorial fracture. The dispute remained dormant until the late 80s, when Nagorno-Karabakh declared its willingness to unite with Armenia, sparking violent clashes.
After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, a large-scale war broke out, ending in 1994 with a ceasefire and Armenian control over the region. Tensions persisted for decades, with sporadic armed clashes.
In September 2020, yet another conflict broke out, known as the "44-day war", which culminated in a ceasefire mediated by Russia (which essentially remained to observe the defeat of its Armenian ally). Azerbaijan managed to regain a significant part of the territory lost during the first Nagorno-Karabakh war. The truce changed the balance of power in the region, but did not resolve the territorial issue.
In September 2023, Nagorno-Karabakh suffers the last violence after having suffered a long blockade of basic necessities, such as food and medicine: Azerbaijan launches a military offensive that leads to the surrender of the Armenian forces and total control of the region. Over 100.000 Armenians flee to Armenia, creating a mass exodus. The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh ends on January 1, 2024. The region is from that moment completely under Azerbaijani control.
Despite the presence of a winner and a loser, the war cannot be said to be over without a real peace agreement. An epilogue that, by freeing or creating new lines of communication and trade, could further boost an economy already growing strongly today.
During our recent visit to Yerevan, we met with Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Paruyr Hovhannisyan, who told us about the progress made in negotiations with Azerbaijan.
Can we talk about the current state of negotiations with Azerbaijan for the peace treaty?
Yes, I think that despite all the difficulties, we have made progress in recent months. The preamble and 13 of the 17 total articles of the peace agreement have already been accepted by the parties. Of the four remaining chapters, three are already almost completely agreed upon, there are only some questions of wording. In essence, only one article remains to be discussed.
So we have never been so close and recently my prime minister proposed to make it public to Azerbaijan that we could sign everything that we have already agreed.
Is it possible to know the only article that is still under discussion?
It is not very important, I cannot reveal it because the negotiations are still ongoing. But we can say that it is not the most important article. The most significant thing for this agreement is that the basic principles for the establishment of peace are all agreed upon, as are all the elements necessary for establishing normal relations, including the points for the establishment of diplomatic relations and a bilateral commission to monitor the implementation of the treaty.
Even without the article in question the agreement is valid and relevant.
If there was a chance to meet, we could complete it in an hour and sign or approve the text!
I think the trades are mostly done. I would say that with the last version we traded, we reached this level.
We also recently managed to sign the rules of procedure for border delimitation, which were part of the peace talks. This is the first document we have ever signed with Azerbaijan, literally MAY. It means that there will no longer be the excuse “there is no border”.
With the agreement, a real work of demarcation will begin - which is one of the most important parts of normalizing relations - and, finally, the opening of communications in the region. We are ready to open the borders to have the freest treatment for communications, energy connections, whatever. But it will be under our sovereignty and jurisdiction, there should be no military or security control of a third country. This is a basic issue for us.
With political will on the other side, we could achieve peace even today, even now.
Meanwhile, pressure on Armenia has increased.
We have made all possible compromises and our commitment to peace has been demonstrated recently with a series of steps and declarations. We are truly ready to sign at any time.
Will it be possible, after the peace treaty, to also change relations with Turkey?
I hope so, because we have been in a very active dialogue with Turkey, an unprecedented activity. There were phone calls and meetings between Erdogan and Pashinyan. There were numerous meetings with ministers. One minister participated in a forum after the earthquake.1 and delivered humanitarian assistance.
Unfortunately, these relations have always been held hostage by the talks with Azerbaijan. I believe that with the achievement of peace there should be progress in that direction as well. Unfortunately, a number of measures that we agreed upon have been pending for almost two years, if not more. We are talking about opening the border for citizens of third countries, like you, or for diplomats, like me or Turks. Unfortunately, those agreements have not been implemented either. I think that Azerbaijan's excessive influence on this issue has sabotaged progress with Turkey.
If there was the political will, we would be ready to engage immediately. This border, which has been sealed since the early 90s, is the only Cold War border that still remains sealed. Of course, this would have a very positive impact on the entire South Caucasus: we are talking about communications, energy, various regional projects. All this would have a very positive effect on peace, but also on economic and development prospects.
In light of the cooling of relations with Russia - which has shamefully betrayed you (not only for '30 pieces of silver', given the current usefulness of Turkey and Azerbaijan to Moscow) - what is Armenia's strategy to diversify its security alliances?
These days, the most frequent words heard in Armenia during conferences and discussions are “diversification” and “resilience”.
I think it is always bad to depend too much on a single actor, even if the best friend, even if the best partner; to depend, or to depend too much, weakens your options. And unfortunately, in the case of Armenia, we have always lacked this strategy.
One of the priorities of the current government is precisely to diversify, not only economic options and defensive capabilities, but also, in general, our foreign policy and economy, and thereby rebuild or build our resilience, which must be strengthened.
But you are probably more interested in our defensive capabilities... The recent decision of the Council of the European Union to admit Armenia, allowing the country to use the mechanism of the European Peace Facility2, is a very important step in this direction, bringing Armenia's defense sector in line with European standards, benefiting from specific projects.
EUMCAP and EUMA missions4 were they helpful?
It was the most tangible example of a quick reaction by the EU when Armenia was attacked in 2022. We sent letters to the UN Security Council, the CSTO, Russia with a bilateral agreement and the EU. The European Union was the one that reacted. This contribution was achieved in Prague.
Originally, it was supposed to be signed during the European Political Community summit, there was a quadrilateral meeting with Charles Michel, President Macron, Aliyev and Ban, and the agreement was to have this instrument on both sides. Later, Azerbaijan rejected this option, starting to criticize the humanitarian mission for various ridiculous arguments, such as espionage and others. The European mission was very positive and reduced the number of victims.
The most important security component is still represented by the European observers, who play a very important stabilizing role with their presence at our borders, even if they are not armed and have only binoculars; with their presence and their reports sent to Brussels they give the Armenian population, who sees the European flag every day, a sense of security.
We will soon join the CSDP missions3 of the European Union, and this will be a new step forward. We have also started new cooperation. We started a political and security dialogue with the EU last year.
Other initiatives?
We have activated contacts with NATO, we have activated bilateral cooperation with countries such as India, France, Greece and others.
We are looking forward to being able to activate cooperation also with countries like Italy, Germany and the Netherlands in this area. Of course, all this is never directed “against” any country, but is only to rebuild our defensive capabilities.
Who cannot count on Azerbaijani budgets...
Absolutely, we cannot afford them. But we cannot completely neglect the sector either. Our desire to modernize our defense capabilities is very natural.
What surprised me in your country is how the popular culture has changed from simple aspects: the older buildings still have Cyrillic writings, but all the new signs are in English or Armenian. They seem to indicate that the Armenian people felt deeply betrayed by Russia…
All the agreements we had made did not work, whether they were with the CSTO or bilateral, or with the peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenians in Armenia, and the Armenians who were forcibly removed from Nagorno-Karabakh, obviously feel betrayed.
None of the agreements, and not a single point of the trilateral declaration signed between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia, had any effect.
The result has been a catastrophic humanitarian situation, with 150.000 people now forcibly displaced in Armenia, and with many tragic elements.
That is why building our resilience is essential to preserve our independence, our territorial integrity, our very existence. It is the main issue for the current government, and all these efforts to establish peace, to diversify our options, in this very difficult region, aim at this.
You have suspended participation in the CSTO with Russia. Is this a final decision or is it just a “message”?
At first we thought it was just a message, but this decision seems final: there has been no response. We have not seen any step from the organization to guarantee our safety or support our efforts.
I see no reason why this decision should be reversed. We have not seen any progress and some members of this organization, such as Belarus with its president, have openly said that they helped Azerbaijan plan the operation. They even celebrated it! This is the situation.
And to Armenia... "Nobody is interested in you, the only option is to join the Union of Russia and Belarus!" Messages like these demonstrate the uselessness of the organization.
On the other side an invitation in the NATO sit seems impossible given the proximity between Russia and Türkiye…
There are other options. I mentioned the European Union, bilateral cooperation with many countries, and there are new possibilities.
It is a complex issue. Security is a very sensitive and specific area, and we have to be very careful with our steps. But I think this is the current government's approach: to be as cautious as possible, but to work actively, I repeat, on diversification.
One last question about your borders. You are between Turkey and Azerbaijan, and to the south you have Iran, with which you have good relations. At this time, however, you are trying to maintain good relations with a West that does not look favorably on Tehran...
Relations with Iran are the oldest we have: we share more than 2.500 years of history. Relations predate Greece, Georgia and the Roman Empire. Neither the Greeks nor Rome came to us, but relations with us already existed. Of course, we have accumulated civil and cultural relations with Iran over time, sometimes difficult.
Recently that country has played an important role for us, both for our Armenian community and for cultural heritage, some monasteries near Mount Ararat have been restored with its help. The relations are really "multifaceted".
Iran has preserved the existing borders, which are very important to us: it has made it clear, on every occasion, whether there was adverse rhetoric from Baku or Moscow, that “it would not tolerate changes in the existing borders between our countries, by force or other means”. The message was one of the factors that prevented new attacks, new escalations, new wars..
Iran is also a key country in trade and energy. These relations play a stabilizing role.
There are also interesting transportation possibilities connecting the Black Sea with the Persian Gulf and India. We hope to play a role in communication and energy projects in this regard.
Reflecting on the tensions between Iran and Israel and the latter's arms sales to Azerbaijan...
The situation in the Middle East is complicated. As you know, we have a presence in Jerusalem. We are custodians of holy places. The Armenian church has large properties in Israel and there is a large Armenian community in Iran with representatives in parliament.
It is interesting to observe your good ties with India: there they teach the concept of karma: “what you do now you will pay in the future”!
It is true. We have had ties with India for a long time. There are Armenian churches in Calcutta, Madras, and many other cities. Even during the Soviet period, when Indira Gandhi visited Moscow, she also came to Armenia. During that period, the ties had a deep historical and cultural significance for us.
It is an important partner for our defense sector, and a key country in international cooperation, such as the UN, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS and others.
Developing our partnership with India is one of our priorities, and it is our main partner in South Asia. We hope to expand these relationships.
We are also developing ties with Arab countries. Currently, our largest trading partners are the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which is increasing its presence. We also established diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia last year, which had been absent for a long time. Our relations with countries such as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are old, with large Armenian communities. The president of Egypt came to Armenia earlier this year. Relations with the Arab world are developing very rapidly.
Maybe you can slowly teach human rights to someone else who needs it?
This is another good thing. We are becoming an example in the entire region and it has been recognized by various international ratings. Our participation in various democracy summits at different levels is appreciated by the EU, the US and other partners.
Armenia has always been engaged on this front, since the collapse of the Soviet Union. We were probably the only country where the former communist leaders were not in power, but a man from the academic community. We were the only country where the change in '91 was total. The communist party was removed from power. I think it was the only case, if we compare it with all the other countries of the former Soviet Union.
1 On February 6, 2023, a devastating earthquake, of magnitude 7.8, caused serious structural damage and a high number of victims
2 L'European Peace Facility (EPF) is a European Union instrument created to strengthen the defence and security capabilities of partners outside the EU. It focuses on peacekeeping missions, crisis management and military support, financing the equipment and capabilities needed to improve global security. Armenia was recently admitted to this program, which allows it to access resources to strengthen its national security and diversify strategic alliances.
3 The missions CSDP (Common Security and Defence Policy) of the European Union are civilian and military operations aimed at promoting international peace, stability and security. These missions may include crisis management, peacekeeping, training of local security forces, and conflict prevention. The EU operates under the CSDP mandate to respond to global challenges such as terrorism, piracy and humanitarian crises.
4 La EUMCAP, launched in 2022, was a temporary and limited monitoring mission. It was subsequently replaced in February 2023 by the EUMA, a broader and longer-term mission, aimed at contributing to stability in the border areas between Armenia and Azerbaijan by monitoring the situation and supporting peace efforts.
Photo: Online Defense / primeminister.am / president.az / EUMA
