Nasrallah is dead, long live Nasrallah

(To Gino Lanzara)
28/09/24

It ended as it began. And as it will probably continue. Like Abbas al Musawi, his predecessor, so Hassan Nasr Allah fell under Israeli fire.

Following the paradigm of Moshe Dayan, Jerusalem continues to play the role of the mad dog that cannot and must not perceive a danger to its existence. The risk is, however, as always, that of remaining even more alone than it already is.

Were there alternatives? Probably not. The fact that reality does not enjoy adequate propaganda and narrative diffusion does not erase the fact that in recent months the Shiite prod of Hezbollah has caused displacement and damage in Israeli territory, up to the recent killing of Druze children in a soccer field.

Let's be clear, the objectivity of events does not give discounts to anyone, but imposes overall evaluations that, now more than ever, make the time of the Oslo Accords appear as impossible mirages.

Israel's particularly violent reaction was to be taken into account, as was and is to be given due consideration to the geographical distance of the Iranian dominus, a valid ideological inspirer but not as much an animator of direct reactions. That Teheran fans the flames is known, but it is equally well known that the presence and the work of proxies pours heavy Israeli arrows on them.

Syria, Iraq and Lebanon know the merciless reality of war. Yet, more than ever, for a principle of political credibility, Iran must react by facing the unknowns of a possible conflict that is increasingly risky. If it is true that instability damages the West, it is also true that the Iranian resistance arc could begin to feel the blow of particularly violent reactions. 

Ma Beware of thinking that it ended with Nasrallah's death, a clear example, until a few hours ago, of how warmongering ideas and impulses are perpetuated; woe betide anyone who thinks that everything could end in a country like Lebanon where Hezbollah has long since replaced the State and where it has a military force equipped with fearsome means.

We must accept the fact that Lebanon, as a political entity with anomalous and complex demography, has long ceased to exist, and we must acknowledge that its capabilities now coincide with those of a party that dominates the scene.

Even allowing time to sacredly anoint a substitute devoted to the struggle and clandestine life, Israel must remain aware of a heightened sense of encirclement, with Lebanese society forced to be tied to Hezbollah, given that there are many Shiites and that Hezbollah is an authority where authority has no longer existed for decades. The system holds up, willingly or not, even more so in a situation where chaos facilitates conflict.

Hezbollah is wounded, but it is not over. The war continues.

Photo: IRNA