Let's take a deep breath and try to analyze the events and the harbingers of the ongoing war in a "detached" way, however difficult.
The Russian invasion of the whole of Ukraine is a resounding one own goal, political and military. From defender of "brothers" under bombing and bereavement for eight years in Donbass, Putin has gone on to impersonate the role of the aggressor, that is what was previously fought and denounced (with dubious luck).
The EU and NATO are now united and resolute in the fight against a “crazy bear”. Before February 24 it was the opposite.
The simple (and quick ...) military strategy of a "special operation" is turning every day into an exhausting and costly siege. The price of the intervention must be evaluated in terms of human but also economic losses: catastrophic.
The question is: really an "autonomous" mistake by the Russian president?
Recall that even in a regime there is never a single man who occupies power, Russia is no exception.
The arrests of the heads of the secret services in recent days could represent (further) pieces of a puzzle that has been taking shape for several weeks: next Coup d'etat.
Let's think about it ... one of the best intelligence in the world really could have provided assessments so wrong on the dynamics and results of such a showdown?
Have the preparations and defensive strategies (military and media) prepared by the Ukrainian side for months (or years) really gone unnoticed?
Are operational and logistical underestimations by the Russian staff only due to "culpable" ineptitude?
Is what is happening today in the Kremlin really a consequence of "mistakes"? Or is there a cynical strategy of one or more actors behind it?
The result of the war in Ukraine will however be a "Pyrrhic Victory". And the real defeat, in perspective, will start from the following day ...
Chi may therefore be interested (time ago) to bring down Russia?
A change of regime has never happened by electoral means. It happens following a defeat, preferably painful.
Let's ask ourselves now: "cui prodest, who benefits from what is happening?"
To those who are preparing to face the real war on a large scale and absolutely need the neighboring country only to "dream" of prevailing and / or to those who are organizing themselves for the same appointment and do not want a victory as expensive as ever in history?
The "sanctioning" attitude threatened before the Russian invasion by the US president (compared to the clear use of weapons warned for the defense of Taiwan) really seemed like a call to action. But, if we speak of hidden maneuvering, US policy took place in the open, not behind the scenes ...
So are we going back to the regime that is making Russia its Belarus today?
To someone with a chronic hunger for resources, especially energy, who now finds them in quantity and at a final price and who, for every international sanction inflicted, penetrates a market in tremendous difficulty with his products and (in perspective) shares?
Who, well before the "Gerasimov doctrine", theorized "war without limits"?
It would therefore be interesting to understand among the "conspirators" arrested in Moscow which "particular" relations have been cultivated abroad in recent years. This is to understand how much he was paid for a river of Slavic blood and the betrayal of his homeland to favor a new powerful master.
If what we are seeing are indeed the preparations for a Coup d'etat, the only hope for peace in Europe is in a counter-coup save Russia from slavery and a unavoidable abyss.
The brave disagreement publicly shown (but by a few included) by Sergey Narishkin, the director of SVR, the Russian foreign secret service, probably worried about a trap evident to him but not to his boss, intent - as written by some colleague - to "humiliate him”, Or the - always presidential - denial of Minister Lavrov's cautious words on the depth of the intervention in Ukraine, make it clear that in the Kremlin there is a“ minority party ”that has tried to oppose the suicidal choice to invade. A group that, perhaps, had perceived that "something was wrong" even then?
Photo: Kremlin / Twitter