Clearly, the political events that have dominated the international scene in 2024 with developments and consequences that are still uncertain, particularly for the Western cultural world, concern the Russian-Ukrainian war, the multi-conflict situation in the Middle East and the election of US President Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20.
Although with a relatively minor impact, contemporary terrorism, which arose in the 1960s, has not failed to confirm its dynamic nature. This is a complex phenomenon whose imprecise name, precisely “terrorism”, does not in the least facilitate an understanding of its nature, aims, structures, dynamics and sources of support.
2024 ended in Europe with two specific events – which can be classified, at least generically, as terrorists – which occurred in Germany and Italy and which, according to the state of knowledge in the public domain, raise questions.
The first of the two took place in Magdeburg, in the Christmas market set up in the historic center (Altstadt), at about 19:20 p.m. on Friday, December 2006, when the fifty-year-old psychiatrist Taleb Al Abdulmohsen of Saudi origin and resident in Germany since XNUMX mowed down the joyful crowd using a BMW rented an hour earlier and driven at full speed for about four hundred meters in a zigzag, killing five people and injuring about two hundred, forty-one of them seriously. The attacker had long declared himself an atheist, anti-Islamic, a supporter of welcoming and integrating foreigners and a supporter of the German far right and had also spread aggressive posts on social media. Arrested, the presence of various narcotic substances in the attacker's blood was found.
The second event involves the arrest in Northern Italy, on December 24, of four young jihadists, investigated for association with the purpose of terrorism and incitement to crime, led by a twenty-two-year-old girl. The fact, with or without direct connections, followed by a few days the direct threats against the journalist Fausto Biloslavo accused by Zulfiqar Khan – former imam of Bologna and expelled from Italy for reasons of national security – of being an unbeliever in the pay of the Jewish state.
Both events found in Germany and Italy require further investigation by investigators, but present elements that can already be raised here following some notes intended to frame terrorism.
There is no universally accepted definition of terrorism and, what's more, the term is often used for any fact that generates fear or to denigrate adversaries in various contexts.. However, in a non-emotional and partially objective way, it is conceived by real technicians at least as the use or threat of use of violence to achieve political ends. This concept should, however, be further elaborated with a "functional description", based on empirical observations and considerations, according to which terrorism simultaneously involves four essential elements: (1) physical or psychological criminal violence, (2) a political, political-religious or political-social aim, (3) the use of clandestine structures and dynamics and (4) the action of non-state groups with or without some form of private or state support.
In the course of contemporary terrorism, therefore for just over six decades, the matrices of the phenomenon can be traced back to extremist ideologies of the right (such as neo-Nazism, ultranationalism and racism) and of the left (such as anarchism and communism); to ethnic-nationalist purposes expressed in forms of geopolitical separatism; to beliefs of religious or pseudo-religious origin transferred to the political level (such as Islamic radicalism or Jewish, Christian, Hindu or substantially sectarian extremism); to purposes ranging from the protection of animals (biocentrism) or nature (ecocentrism) to the support of irregular and clandestine immigration. To all these matrices already found, others that are currently inactive or unknown can be added at any time. In fact, terrorism arises and exploits situations of place and time according to its own vision and purposes.
Within the single matrices or within the totality of matrices, one or more aggregations can act either simultaneously or at different times with their own rigid or flexible structures or, within each matrix, the relative aggregations or some of them can organize themselves or connect in networks. Each aggregation, regardless of the ideological matrix, makes use of a milieu similar reference and, where possible, its informational, logistical or operational support. Some aggregations, especially if they have reached more advanced stages with respect to terrorism - such as the insurgency that involves at least partial and temporary control of the national territory - also enjoy the support of foreign sponsor States, as notoriously exemplified by the current Iranian regime.
Still on the subject of ideological matrices, it should be added that certain events, such as the current armed conflict between Israel, a sovereign state, and non-state actors, namely Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis, are often exploited by protesters of heterogeneous composition who join the protest, therefore specifically anti-Israeli or anti-Semitic elements or simply pacifists (often one-sided) together with various anti-patriarchy, anti-NATO, anti-assistance to the besieged Ukraine, anti-borders, anti-law enforcement and anti-national government in office elements. Acts of terrorism also arise from this heterogeneous environment..
Depending on their ideologies, their identification of the enemy to be defeated and their logistical and operational potential, terrorist groups conduct, through their clandestine structures, actions against selected targets. Where the optimal target is not sufficiently accessible, a less important but more approachable target is chosen, according to the so-called “terrorist calculation”. Typical terrorist actions traditionally include the aggressive use of explosive or incendiary devices, injuries and murders with firearms, kidnappings of people and means of transport, particularly aircraft.
The expansion and subsequent pre-eminence of radical Islamic terrorism since the 1980s has significantly increased the use, which already existed, of improper and cutting weapons, suicide attacks and attempted or completed indiscriminate massacres. Since for the jihadist attacker, unlike the secular one, the enemy is the unfaithful, hitting indiscriminately in the mass is still a "selective" act. It should not be forgotten that the late Osama bin Laden, founder of al-Qaeda, decreed that the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction is a religious duty. However, mass destruction can also occur without chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons, as was fully demonstrated by the attacks of September 11, 2001 on New York and Washington.
Having said this, we can ask ourselves what the above-mentioned events that occurred in Magdeburg and Northern Italy represent and what uncertainties they raise.
The attack in Magdeburg is part of a well-established case history, regardless of the outcome.. The vehicle used by jihadists as a “club” against the crowd had precedents: Nice and Berlin in 2016 and Stockholm, Barcelona and Cambrils in 2017. The same can be said for other attacks with different instruments such as, for example, the aforementioned events of September 11, 2001, preceded by the failed attempt by Algerian Islamic extremists to hit the center of Paris with a hijacked plane in 1994.
As for the commission of the attack by a single Saudi resident in Germany, there are precedents in both the jihadist and anarchist fields. However, it should be kept in mind that, with the advent and widespread access to information technology, virtual groups of reference, operational learning and incitement are continually being formed, a sector in which al-Qaeda and the self-styled Islamic State have become masters.
Instead, pending confirmation, what is surprising in the Magdeburg case is the declared far-right motivation of the attacker and the choice of target. One wonders whether this was a “false flag” action or whether it was the intervening imitative factor that has often influenced terrorist elements of all origins.
In turn, with regard to the arrests that took place in Northern Italy, it should be noted that compared to other European countries - particularly France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom - Italy has remained, with minor exceptions, substantially immune from radical Islamic terrorist acts. Due credit must be given to the entire security system which over the decades has acquired enormous experience in combating domestic and transnational terrorism. Likewise, it should not be overlooked that the Italian territory, thanks to its geographical location, has long been considered useful by terrorist elements such as transit and logistical support area rather than an operational zoneIt remains to be seen whether the arrests on Christmas Eve are indicative of a changed approach.
In conclusion, it must be acknowledged that in terms of terrorist structures and dynamics, the substantial elements remain, while the possibility or need for changes in the details is always present, also as a result of technological developments, particularly in communication, transportation and tools of aggression. At the same time old matrices can run out and new ones can arise accompanied by specific purposes.
It follows that the terrorist phenomenon requires constant and active attention in the interests of prevention, repression and possible containment of damage.
*Prof. Vittorfranco Pisano, currently secretary general of the National Register of Intelligence Analysts and professor of “Terrorism and Non-Conventional Conflict” at eCampus University, was a consultant to the Subcommittee on Security and Terrorism of the United States Senate and a course reviewer for the Anti-Terrorism Assistance Program of the United States Department of State.