A long line Maginot of NATO, from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea

(To Tiziano Ciocchetti)
20/06/19

Last 17 June of Russian fighters Sukhoi Su-27 intercepted a formation of strategic B-52H bombers that were approaching the Russian Federation's border from the Black Sea to the Baltic (see video at the bottom), according to the spokesman of the Center National Defense Team of Russia.

There is no doubt that the Alliance is building a fortified line that goes from the three Baltic Republics to Romania, thus fueling the Russian encirclement syndrome.

Italy also contributes with its own contingent, based on 1 ° bersaglieri regiment of the brigade Garibaldi equipped with i Dart - included in the Canadian-led battle group of the Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) NATO - recently strengthened with the arrival of 7 MBT Ram (first operational deployment abroad since the end of the Babylon operation in Iraq).

Obviously a conventional Russian attack on the Baltic states would be quite unlikely, especially after the reinforcement of NATO's military device.

However, in the 2016 President Putin sent a very clear signal (received by few international observers), in fact it modified the formulation of the document that stated the overall military strategy of the Russian Federation and went beyond the 2015 document that illustrated the naval strategy: for the first time, the United States of America was defined as a external threat for Russia.

If Moscow decides to send military forces to the Baltic Republics, it would justify the attack by stating that the Russian communities present in those territories are the object of discrimination. In both Estonia and Latvia, about a quarter is of Russian ethnicity, while in Lithuania the percentage is only of 6%.

The Russian-speaking populations could be stirred up in order to create political instability, moreover Moscow controls the supply of gas to the Baltics, therefore, it could decide to interrupt the supply.

Moving on the shore of the Black Sea, an important region for Moscow's strategy is certainly Moldova.

Moldova offers interesting geopolitical insights, as an attack by Russia would lead to a crossing of Ukraine, the Dnepr river, and then another sovereign country. While not triggering NATO's automatic reaction (Moldova is not part of it), a Russian attack would cause massive economic sanctions resulting in a return to Cold War status.

The question at this point arises: why do Russians (and therefore NATO) care so much about a country like Moldova? The geography gives us the answer.

Where the Carpathians curve towards the south-west to form the Transylvanian Alps, to the south-east a plain forms into the Black Sea, a sort of corridor that leads directly into Russia. Just as Moscow would like to control the northern European plain in the narrowest part, in Polish territory, so it would like to control it even in the part closest to the Black Sea - Moldavia -, in the region that was once called Bessarabia.

The Treaty of Paris of the 1856, after the Crimean War, returned parts of Bessarabia to Moldova, thus excluding the Russian Empire from the Danube. Almost a century later it manages to reappear on the Danube, but with the collapse of the USSR it had to retreat further east.

In truth, Moscow already controls a slice of Moldavia, Transnistria, located to the east of the Dnepr river, which borders the Ukraine. During the Stalinist period a large number of Russians were installed, with the result that today in the region at least 50% of the population is Russian-speaking, and obviously controlled by Moscow.

An invasion of Moldavia of Russia is very unlikely, however the Kremlin can exploit the political instability of Transnistria (State independent of the 1991) to hinder the Moldovan government's plans to join NATO.

Images: MoD Russian Fed / Kremlin / US Army National Guard