USA-Turkey, the end of a love?

18/07/16

First of all, clarity. Not of love, but a marriage of interest. Turkey resurrected with the guidance of Kemal "Ataturk" has been for almost a century the perfect partner for the United States, as useful and strategic as anyone.

In three particular aspects, Ankara has been an essential partner for Washington.

The first point concerns relations with Russia. Since the times of the Tsars, there is bad blood between the Ottomans and the Russians. The inescapable need for Petersburg and Moscow to find a shore towards the Mediterranean have generated constant friction, studded with frictions, counter-alliances, wars and spite. To the natural hinge constituted by the Black Sea and its Bosphorus funnel, is added the line of the Turkmen peoples who between Anatolia and the Caspian have been rumbling for centuries south of the Great Empire. Sometimes muted, other times accompanying the echo of the Islamic peoples who prod the southern flank of Mother Russia in the Caucasus mountains, the people of Turkish origin are an ancestral nightmare for the Orthodox of the steppe. It is an irrefutable historical fact.

Not even to do it on Ataturk's Turkey has arisen precisely in conjunction with the birth of the USSR, the enemy of the century of the United States. No one could serve the Western cause on the southern Eurasian front better than Ankara. With today's Russia, flags and systems change, but the background remains unchanged: no cap is better than Turkey in front of the enemy, true or presumed, that comes from the East.

The Turkish heritage antiarabe did the rest. Colonialist for DNA and characterized by a soft Islamic matrix, Turkey has joined Israel for decades in the cooling policies of the Arab paturnias, showing itself to the American eyes as a faithful and reliable partner in the Middle East. The partnership between Ankara and Tel Aviv in many strategic sectors has been constant for more than half a century.

The third factor, but probably the most important, is the potential and political status of Turkey. As the natural right wing of the Alliance, Ankara provides the second military apparatus to NATO, moreover without those "democratic obsessions" that bind all other partners.

This idyll lasted for decades because Western protection was agreed upon by Turkey. Beyond the economic advantages, Ankara has been able to develop behind the American screen an indigenous model, a mix of progress and tradition. In particular, although recognized as a democratic country as a whole, Turkey has been able to remain outside the western margins in terms of law, division of powers and individual freedoms, beginning to perceive vague pressures only on the road to the European Union. 

All of this created a relationship of mutual convenience: Ankara remained on the western perspectives; the West and the US in particular have closed their eyes to interpretations of law that are otherwise questionable. The Kurdish question is an example for everything.

The mechanism started rippling with the rise of the star of Erdogan and his AKP, the Islamic conservative party.

On what happens in the walls of the house, the West has shrugged. Of Erdogan's foreign policy initiatives, vice versa, he began to worry.

Erdogan, the first charismatic Turkish statesman after decades of warmth, decides to ride the figure of Islam's paladin and starts a support program Urbi et orbi, Without precedents. As far as mosques, roads and cultural centers are concerned, the USA and Europe will be niches, indeed they often bless without hesitation. Bosnia, Somalia, Albania ... the projects financed by Ankara are not counted far beyond the simple patronage ...

Change the music when Erdogan puts his hands in Egypt, where the axis with i Muslim Brotherhood raises the Cairo of Al Sisi, an ally of the USA. The clash with Egypt is repeated in Libya, where Turkey supports the Islamist front in Tripoli, opposed by the Cyrenaica militia financed by Al Sisi.

Not only that: Ankara, without waiting for the American OK, recognizes the State of Palestine, sending furiously Israel, with whom it no longer talks from the assault on Mavi Marmara of the 2010. In the 2011 Erdogan speaks to the leaders of the Arab League, placing for the first time Turkey in open collision course with Tel Aviv.

About what happened in Syria, we spoke extensively about this column. Turkey tightens relations with Saudi Arabia and although officially deployed against Islamist terrorism, it allows the transit of men and supplies to the Islamic State and openly supports fundamentalist militiamen on the Syrian border: while it offers NATO bases to bomb ISIS , allows the same bases to be storage of materials for terrorists Al Nusra and for its Turkmen affiliates.

Obsessed with the domino effect that the rise of the Syrian Kurds could create on its territory, it gets in the way of Washington's plans, which instead focuses on the Kurds to put a stop to Assad and his allies. After having shot down a Russian plane, irritated Putin and after having waged open war against the Syrian army, Erdogan moves between cunning and necessity and tries to reconnect with Russia and Damascus.

Turkey, which is necessary and indispensable for America, begins to arouse bad mood. Too autonomous, too murky, in some cases even hostile to long-term programs of the NATO it belongs to.

Where is the point of equilibrium and where is the break?

Erdogan knows his stuff. Aware of the extraordinary importance that Turkey has for the Atlantic interests and the phenomenon of migration in Europe, it plays on the upside. It strengthens the power inside and raises the voice with the allies.

On the other hand, if you can not do without Ankara, the USA already has enough of Erdogan ...

That the West is tired of a maverick that creates problems behind the attempted coup is likely, but not obvious. As is logical, conspiracy theories without confirmation have no limits. What matters vice versa is the final result: Turkey is changing rapidly. Faster than you think. Erdogan is currently firmly in command and has the opportunity to strengthen himself. How compatible this is with yesterday's world of alliances remains to be seen.

(photo: ndt / Alalam)