The Turkish army is in Syria. From the military point of view the fact has no particular findings. Turkish arms and Ankara's support for the Turkmen militia in Syrian territory have never ceased since the beginning of the war.
The political figure of the choice to officially intervene over the border with regular troops is, on the other hand, enormous, especially if coordinated with the announcement of the restoration of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel.
Those who follow the "Venturi Venturi" section know the attention given by Online Defense the equilibrium revolved around the Tel Aviv-Ankara axis, cracked starting from the 2010 but still decisive for understanding which way the wind blows in the Middle East.
The Turkish decision to openly fight the YPG Kurds in Syrian territory (under the pretext of the fight against ISIS) is not a bolt from the blue. Behind the apparent Turkish venture there is a two-year reasoning and a series of contacts between chancelleries started in the autumn 2015, then accelerated after the Kurdish successes in the north east of Syria in early summer. But the diplomatic methods and political corridors along which the action has developed are unusual. The Turkish initiative was agreed with Moscow in June and "telegraphed" in advance to Israel, sending a blind copy to Damascus. The only missing address in the virtual missara of Ankara is Washington, the secular ally of the Turks for the Eurasian bloc.
Of the reasons why the Turkish forces are in Syria we have already written in abundance. It is useful to repeat here only that Erdogan and his Ottoman revanchism can not afford the contagion of a newfound Kurdish euphoria in the home.
On the reason why the Turks have forced their hand challenging US patience, it is better to reflect.
The US has officially supported the Kurds since the beginning of the fictitious military campaign against the Islamic State. The alliance has remained on paper for more than a year, precisely because of pressure from Ankara, irritated by the possible strengthening of Syrian Kurds. The American stand-by, in turn criticized by the keen Kurds, was released in April when the reconquest of the forces of Assad and their allies became too embarrassing for Washington. US special forces have thus entered Syria and a rain of aid has begun to fall on the Kurdish militia of the YPG and on the mixed Kurdish-Arab forces of the SDF.
Ankara, struggling with an internal political reassignment of gloomy features, has thus found itself at a crossroads: continue to unnerve America by protecting its immediate interests or seize the opportunity to return under the umbrella of the Great Ally?
Three factors have substantially affected:
- the possibility of mending relations with Israel, a former great friend of Turkey, for some years deeply annoyed by the Obama administration;
- the need to re-establish serious contacts with Moscow, with which it had arrived in the autumn one step away from the war;
- the desire to relaunch in a more independent way on a regional and extra-regional scale a foreign policy considered not very ambitious by the high plans on the Bosphorus.
The opportunity was provided by the attempted coup of the 15 July, which threw shadows on the real relations between Ankara and Washington.
In anticipation of a change of tenant at the White House, Erdogan gambled, accusing the US more or less openly of plotting against him. The Turkish president has tingled knowing he has his back covered: both Putin and Nethanyau have every interest in embarrassing the current Middle Eastern policy of the United States. After a quiet warning, the decision to enter Syria, ready for months but with the wind against it, was finally taken. Never moment has been more propitious. The move of Turkey falls in a moment of transition of balance and in addition to arousing apparent clamor can not have serious side effects.
With the exception of the treacherous monarchies of the Gulf and a not very substantial Jordan, no country in the Middle East today represents a safe haven for Washington: not even the dented annexe Iraq and Egypt of the chameleon Al Sisi.
In all likelihood then, the US will give up the Kurdish case, never been central to the State Department. Keeping yourself a good and recalcitrant Ankara will still remain the biggest booty for the future US president.
It remains to be seen how much and how Erdogan will still venture. Turkey remains a NATO country to all intents and purposes, but the wind on the Bosphorus is no longer the same.
(photo: Türk Silahlı Kuvvetleri / 2a photo - TV ronahi frame)
