The beginning of the American bombing of Sirte against the forces of the Caliphate helps to provide a simplified and polarized reading of the civil war. On the one hand, terrorism, on the other, those who fight it.
The actual scenario configured to date is substantially different and describes a country prey to chaos and violence.
Let's start with the latest news from the field: according to data provided by Africom, from the 1 August, thanks to the US raids two tanks would be destroyed, 5 armored vehicles and an indefinite series of defensive positions of the Islamic State. In the Libyan framework the update leaves the time it finds.
On the other hand, the Italian confirmation of laying the foundations for US operations is of political importance: the scenario of Unified Protector of the 2011, with a different end goal but with developments that are even more confusing if possible.
The American raids are part of the general downsizing plan of the Islamic State, which began unequivocally in both Syria and Iraq since the beginning of 2016 (election year). On the possible prospects following the neutralization of the Caliphate, however, very thick clouds remain. What is dramatically evaded by the international media is that the real knot to be solved in Libya is not the presence, among other things, of ISIS, but the actual national reconciliation, which is currently essentially impossible.
In this regard, the killing with a car bomb in Benghazi by 28 soldiers of General Haftar, a strong man in the Tobruk government, has a certain political value. The attack was claimed by the Council of Shura of the city, in other words from the Islamist cartel that contends with Haftar's militias the control of the second city of Cyrenaica.
The army of General Haftar is armed from Egypt and albeit at times in contrast with the same politicians of Tobruk, which is officially the armed wing, today represents in Libya the only force openly sided against all Islamic fundamentalist groups, without distinction : be Libyan Dawn which brings together the Islamists now integrated into the UN-recognized government of Al Sarraj, both ISIS. To these are added the terrorists of Ansar al-Sharia, considered among the most radical fundamentalist groups.
As noted several times in this column, the alliances that characterize the Libyan civil war are not based on ideological or political assumptions, but on military conveniences of the moment. Together with the forces of the Al Serraj government, the militias of Misrata are fighting, jealous of their anti-Zeddafian origins, but on whose level of penetration of Islamic fundamentalism there is little clarity. The same forces as Ansar al-Sharia present in Benghazi and in the war against Tobruk, they do not hide that they are fighting alongside Tripoli.
At present the militias of the Caliphate, perched around the palaces of Ougadougou center in Sirte, the birthplace of the former Saddam Libyan, are under attack by the forces of Tripoli recognized internationally as a regular army, the militias measatine and, at least until yesterday, General Haftar, former CIA but fell out of favor in Washington. To all this are added the American raids of the last days and the threats of intervention on the ground.
A possible and probable defeat of the Caliphate on Libyan soil would actually be the solution to a false problem. Beyond the goal achieved to be fed to the media, there would in any case remain the problem of the Islamization of the institutions of Tripoli, the role of Tobruk and the absolute fragmentation of the national territory. Above all, the looting of energy resources and the control of mass migration phenomena by criminal cartels would remain unaffected.
Off the coast of Libya, in the Sicilian Channel, meanwhile crosses the amphibious warship USS Wasp and in the Sigonella base it increases the comings and goings of Marines USA.
Waiting for changes in the political and military framework, we once again recall the prophetic threat of Gaddafi, dated 2011: "After me, chaos".
(photo: GNA Army-Alalam)
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