As expected a few days ago, the biggest news from the war in Syria comes from the southern front.
Also helped by the agreements on the "de-escalation zones" that allowed the concentration of war efforts to the southeast, for the first time in three years, Assad's troops regain control of the border with Jordan in the Sweida Governorate, east of the Golan.
The massive advance, which began in early May, is part of a larger operation, aimed at recovering the territory of the South East still in the hands of ISIS and the rebels.
The lines of action are essentially four:
- At Quaryataun northeast of Damascus, where the Syrians advanced for tens of kilometers in 48 hours;
- the desert east of Palmira;
- the 2 highway leading to the Al-Tanf Iraqi border post, where US-led Coalition planes attacked Damascus forces a few days ago;
- the aforementioned operation of Al Sweida, which reports a strategic piece of Syria under loyalist control.
The final target of the great movement of Syrian troops, supported by the Russians and Shiite paramilitaries, is Deir Ezzor and the corner of Syria determined by the Euphrates at the level of the Iraqi border.
The great maneuver that tends to free Deir Ezzor from the siege of the Islamic State started three years ago is called Lavender Operation, transliteration of the name of the Syrian colonel, who died to defend the city and right arm of the Druze general Zarheddine, current leader of the paratroopers of the besieged Republican Guard.
To get to the target the Syrians will take months, but presumably this will be the game that will decide the post-war in Syria.
In this scenario the role of Iraq will have a decisive weight. According to declarations (23 May, state TV) of the Minister of the Interior Qasim Al Araji, Baghdad will not allow the creation of a buffer zone between Syria and Iraq.
The collaboration of Baghdad with the government of Damascus to ensure the borders between the two countries is a relevant geopolitical figure. After the Islamic State, whose countdown has already begun, if Iraq cooperated with Assad, it would be very difficult for the Coalition forces to establish a control area south of Syria. It would also be a political tear, after a year of military collaboration on the front of Mosul.
However, this is not too surprising. It should be remembered that Al Araji is a member of the Badr, Iraqi Shiite organization armed and funded by Iran. There Badr it is part of the PMU, Popular Mobilization Unit Shiites who are fighting ISIS in northern Iraq. His words roar like a historical defeat for those who wanted to Iraqi Freedom in 2003: an Iraq "liberated" by Saddam would today become a stage of the Shiite crescent which from Beirut arrives in Tehran via Damascus. Exactly the opposite of what Saudi Arabia, the United States and partly Israel wanted. ISIS, as a virtual Sunni state straddling Iraq and Syria, was born precisely for this ...
The word then returns to arms. The Syrians will push to the limit towards the southeast in a sort of race against time: the goal is to reach the southern borders in the belt between the Golan and the Euphrates, before the rebels of the Free Syrian Army and the troops of the USA and Jordan (already deployed to enter Syria from the north of Jordan) establish a protection belt there.
The US-Sunni Coalition for its part will try to avoid Al Tanf's isolation on the Syrian-Iraqi border and will continue to arm and train the rebels of theFSA to prevent it. According to military sources, it is also preparing for the possible entry from Abu Kamal city on the Euphrates between Iraq and Syria, still in the hands of ISIS. The weight and the political role of PMU Iraqi Shiites, will in this case be the tip of the balance.
The evolution of the whole picture hangs on the behavior of Russia which has so far allowed the Syrians to turn the tide of the war. Support for Assad will sooner or later come to a point of confrontation with the US and its allies, whose intentions, beyond the ISIS pretext, will have to be laid bare once and for all.
(photo: SAA)
